UFC 256 - The Fight Site Staff Picks
Photo courtesy of the UFC
2020 has been bizarre for the UFC all around, and there’s some poetic justice in the division that management felt was least useful to them carrying the latter part of their most desperate year. Part of it is just that fact, desperation; UFC 256 was originally a spot for both Amanda Nunes’ next title defense and for Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling — the two best bantamweights in the world — and both of those fights being ruled out for December 12th had left the UFC in dire straits for a traditionally-stacked end-of-year PPV. However, another part is that 125 has done very little but deliver through 2020 — even while the UFC was actively mangling it — and no fighters capture that ability to deliver as well as the champion and challenger. Brandon Moreno seemed doomed to be an action-fighter when he’d left the UFC on a two-fight skid, but has outlasted the men who beat him to challenge for the belt where neither could; his opponent is a destroyer like none other in the history of 125, as Deiveson Figueiredo has proven to be the unrelentingly violent champion that flyweight needs.
Of course, while the flyweights top the bill, they aren’t necessarily the biggest draw of the card — in fact, on a show with Tony Ferguson, very few other fighters can be the draw (especially if violence is the demand). The great lightweight contender looks to get back on track in his own unique way against an opponent who has cleaned out the ranks to establish himself as a worthy adversary — the resurgent veteran Charles Oliveira. The top three fights on the card are rounded out by a matchup for top-15 lightweight status that could easily prove to be either man’s toughest test en route to the top 5 — clever 145 staple Renato Moicano looks to become a contender at 155 against Rafael Fiziev, a coach of champions and an absolute smasher. The Fight Site’s MMA team take a look at which fighters should be favored to end their year on top.
Deiveson Figueiredo (C) vs. Brandon Moreno
Sriram Muralidaran: Glad this fight is on, even if it’s under odd circumstances; Moreno is off a title eliminator that he probably didn’t need, and Figueiredo is off a title defense that probably should’ve been Moreno in the first place. That’s not to say Alex Perez was a bad fight to make for Figueiredo -- if anything, I’d argue he was a more compelling challenge for Figueiredo than Moreno himself, which completely tips my hand as to the pick I’m going to make -- but the point is that the fight is slightly later than we might’ve expected it to be, considering that Moreno already had his shot-earning win over the elite Jussier Formiga by the time Figueiredo got the belt.
The question that the 21-day turnaround raises for me is just Figueiredo’s state; an absolutely massive 125er, two cuts in three weeks seems a bit reckless on Deiveson’s part. Aside from that, I don’t have many reservations picking Figueiredo here -- it seems like a fight in which Moreno would need to be both aggressive and disciplined in a way that we haven’t seen before, even in his latest run. Moreno got torn apart on the counter by both Alexandre Pantoja and Sergio Pettis, he’s not a very big puncher and he isn’t responsible defensively, and that makes his need to drive a pace in this fight a dangerous proposition -- Figueiredo is a terrific and varied counterpuncher who can really deal damage against opponents who demand exchanges the way Pantoja did in their fight. Even against Kai Kara-France in his current run, Moreno was intensely vulnerable in exchanges, and Figueiredo’s only loss has been to a fighter who was pretty much the opposite of that -- Moreno isn’t a defensive blank slate but he’s far closer to that than being Formiga. Figueiredo’s first fight against Benavidez seems like one that’s particularly instructive; Figueiredo drew out the attacks of the crafty Benavidez with pressure and cracked him with short straight rights for obliging, and pressure-countering is part of what got Sergio Pettis his most dominant round against Moreno in Mexico City.
The wrestling doesn’t worry me as much as it perhaps should, partly because Moreno is less of a lockdown threat (the way Perez could’ve been) and more of a scrambler, and another part because Figueiredo has proven such an insane athlete that he could strong himself out of bad positions even against top-position threats. Moreno has become a solid boxer behind an okay lead hand and good volume, but his options seem to be to either get bombed pursuing his win-condition or let Figueiredo dictate the pace and range of a matchup where he can probably tear Moreno’s body up for free on the lead -- neither is a consistently winning gambit. Figueiredo via KO2.
Ed Gallo: To touch on Sriram’s ending point - Moreno is a bit of a wrestler, but not in a way that concerns me in the least. Moreno might have a better traditional ground game than Alex Perez (see: his excellent performance vs. Formiga), but the threat of control and round-winning is nowhere near the same. Perez taking down and wearing out Figueiredo was very much in play. We saw how Figueiredo dealt with that. I could definitely see some competitive grappling exchanges taking place, but for the most part I believe the power counter punching of Figueiredo is going to see him through again. Moreno’s best performances have come against predictable, patterned opponents. He builds his shot selection based on what he or his coaches see on film, far in advance of the fight. We have to consider that this is a relatively short notice bout for both men, and that the fighter who more heavily relies on gameplanning is Moreno. Of course, Figueiredo makes some excellent reads on his opponents as well, but many of them appear to happen in-fight, the champion is far more intuitive. This could definitely be competitive, and I’m interested to see Figueiredo go more than 3 rounds, but it’s hard not to imagine Figueiredo not consistently landing power and setting up a fight-ending moment. Figueiredo R2 Submission.
Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: What a fight ! I was a bit surprised that the UFC went for Cody and Perez to challenge Figueiredo instead of Moreno, but at least the fight is here. Under weird circumstances, yes but it’s here. Three weeks ago, Figueireido (who’s on his way to be the FOTY) submitted Perez very early in an impressive fashion where Moreno had a good round against a game opponent. The fight ending sequence was very unfortunate and hopefully one day we’ll see Royval get a second chance at the Mexican but Moreno still dominated in that round. I’ve been super high on Brandon Moreno since the day submitted Louis Smolka. Since then I’ve always enjoyed his wild but nonetheless tactical fighting style. Moreno showed good cardio, can fight a high pace fight, very good scrambler, amazing durability but also that he’s very strong for that division. And this is what seems to me the difference between Moreno and other contenders. Figueireido is strong and mean and was always stronger than his opponent so far. I’m not sure that he’ll be stronger than Moreno. I don’t think Moreno is a strong puncher but he’s a good volume puncher (which to me is key to beat Figueiredo). I also don’t think Figueiredo will be able to walk down the Mexican at ease as Moreno’s footwork is good and so is his Jab. He also loves to throw wild stuff to release opponent pressures (from huge overhand, to crazy back take) and this could go both ways, he could either get countered badly or make the Monster more cautious. As great and fantastic Figueiredo is, I believe in Moreno’s recklessness to actually help him here. I see Figueiredo starting super strong and putting on the mexican early but failing to end the show. And after 15 minutes of a somewhat competitive but still one sided fight I see Moreno’s pace growing and growing while Figueiredo starts to only look for a big shot. Making Figueiredo frustrated and looking for big shots over and over would actually open a lot of opportunities for Moreno. That’s why in a fan first pick I chose to believe in Brandon Moreno winning the Title via Submission Round 5.
Danny Martin: I can’t help but feel a tinge of skepticism when I analyze Figuerido. He’s broadly done everything correctly during his UFC run, but I also don’t think many of his opponents have looked particularly prepared in handling him. Perez folded almost instantly, and Benavidez looked physically overwhelmed from the opening bell. Is there a flyweight in existence that can force Fig to overcommit, smother his counters, and lead him safely in and out of the clinch? Barring Formiga? Maybe not. Maybe Brandon Moreno’s overzealous approach gets him swiftly finished as is Fig’s wont to. However, I still can’t help but wonder if Fig is really one to fix the problems in his game, or if he’s fighting opponents who simply don’t ask the right questions. Moreno’s lead hand is quite good, his hand speed bails him out of bad exchanges, and he’s tremendously durable, so all of these qualities could wind up being equally good or bad against Fig. I guess I’ll err on the side of skepticism once more and side with Moreno via Unanimous Decision, because until I see Fig take it down a notch in these five rounds fights, I can’t help but anticipate a humiliating loss for him against a sensible, patient opponent.
Zach Makovsky: Moreno has some advantages here, namely his volume and pace. However, I have difficulty seeing him being able to get combinations off consistently without taking the worst of it from Figueiredo’s strong, committed counters. Moreno hasn’t shown to be the type to feint and draw his opponents out of position before unleashing his attacks and Figueiredo isn’t over reactive. Actually, Fig strikes me as the type to happily take a shot to plant and deliver his counter in return. I think Fig probably discourages Moreno from throwing as often as he’d want and Moreno will get pushed to the back foot where he is less comfortable and effective.
I believe Moreno’s best path is through heavy doses of clinch, takedown attempts, and generally pushing the pace through grappling exchanges. Moreno has decent takedowns and I believe Fig is pretty vulnerable to well timed entries, but again this isn’t exactly the type of wrestler Moreno is in MMA. On top of that, Fig is no slouch on the ground even if you can get him there.
I think Moreno is strong willed and gritty enough to take what Fig will dish out and I don’t see him getting submitted even if he gets stuck in that dreaded guillotine. I think he can make things hairy towards the end of the fight but overall, I think Fig’s abilities will limit Moreno’s path to victory to be too narrow. Fig by decision.
Ben Kohn: I think there’s a lot to unpack here. Fig is a genuinely terrifying physical specimen, up there with S tier athletic talents in MMA. His power, explosiveness, and finishing abilities are unreal. Throw in his durability and the man is a genuine freak of nature. That being said, his gas tank, already not the best, is only going to be suffering from either another huge weight cut, or forcing himself to stay leaner than his body is used to in between fights. I can’t imagine it’ll help his tank (would be interested to see this go into the championship rounds).
That aside, Fig is far more comfortable countering his opponents coming in, using his physical gifts to overwhelm his opponents with power shots. He can lead, but we’ve also seen his entries are lacking somewhat and he can be countered himself coming in and even in those exchanges in the pocket.
Moreno is a pretty solid athlete as well, stupidly durable, and, unlike Fig, can both push a pace that can be sustained over time. While he’s not an especially high volume striker, he has shown that he can not only maintain a high pace over time, but even increase it come the later rounds. Moreno should have the range advantage, flicking his long lead hand out along with that lead high kick behind it. We know Moreno and his team can pick out and follow gameplans too, so I expect they will have looked at the Formiga fight for guidance (especially considering they are common opponents). Fig’s head movement coming in is not great, and will be there to be hit. Moreno playing the fine game on the feet, keeping Fig at long range and forcing him to make explosive movements in and countering those with 1 or 2 strikes and bailing, or to initiate takedown attempts, is something he can definitely do I think. I’m going with the underdog here, and think Moreno takes a decision over a tired Fig. Brandon Moreno by Unanimous Decision.
Haxxorized: That Fig is a real presence seems beyond dispute at this point. His ridiculous athleticism, disciplined counterpunching and love of vicious body-work create a dynamic, ruthless and fearsome finisher. Of course, those same qualities (and the Formiga fight) leave us with plenty of unanswered questions. Indeed, we have yet to see a Fig dragged into deep waters, forced to compose and measure himself over five rounds. Such a question seems especially significant given the short-notice nature of this fight; and the gruelling second weight cut that invites. Fig is untested in the grand scheme of the five-round ugly war that I am even more keen to inflict upon them than my colleagues - that asterisk you cannot ignore.
Likewise, Moreno offers a lot of good things. A well-crafted procedural ground game, high pace, respectable durability and proven ability to weaponise all these things. Certainly, Moreno's game-planning and preparation seem enough that the man understands he needs to bring volume and plenty of it to get over the line here, preferably by exhausting Fig in the later rounds. Equally so, Moreno has demonstrated a vulnerability to counterpunching and a lack both the power to stun or the defensive responsibilities to stymie intelligent counterpunching on the way back. Part of me also wonders if his durability and bullishness in fighting a pace-based game may even work against him. If Fig takes the defensive openings to hit the body consistently - using power to limit pace, Moreno may never get the snowball rolling he needs to win*.
*Justin "Chungus Khan of the Steppes approved counterpuncher" Gaethje sends his regards
But there is something off for me about Fig, and I mean that positively, (for once). Fig’s first-stage adaptations keep impressing me even by the standards of elite MMA. They are fantastic in all the ways an instinctive, decisive athletic juggernaut should be - simple; concise and built around an intuitive knowledge of his strengths and limitations that I think many analysts fail to get. If knowing yourself is half the battle, Fig might be one of the best to do it in the entire UFC roster.
The question I raise about Fig is neither his cardio nor his ability to address potential issues in his game before somebody truly tests them. In a call that feels a little off-brand for me, I am more interested in precisely one quality - how Fig manages a fight where his first-stage adaptations fail to earn him a meaningful advantage or fight-smashing moment. Is he capable of something that only fighters as exceptional as Volkanovski or Holloway have demonstrated - second stage adaptations in the later rounds of a violent, messy opera? Something makes me think if he is, Fig should end up smashing this division for longer than his athletic gifts or uncanny finishing instinct might indicate.
Moreno could well be the one to show it, but those defensive deficiencies even while he leverages his durability make me uneasy. I can see why people are favoring Fig on this one.
Mateusz Fenrych: Finally, flyweight is getting the stage it should always have, even if it is reluctantly on the UFC’s part. This superb match-up will hopefully help cement it in the public’s imagination in a way that the Fig-Perez was shaping up to, but lasted too little time.
My reads are a mixture of what Sriram and Haxx’s reads are, essentially. Figuereido may not be the most tactically savvy fighter on the roster - the Formiga fight would appear to attest to that - but he is a fantastically instinctive one.
He is a collision fighter; in other words, he very much understands how to take advantage of singular moments of contact in a bout, and his physical advantages and spatial acuity mean that quite often, those points of contact remain as one collision rather than as an exchange.
He also knows when not to commit to a collision; he has a pretty decent sense of distance that will often see him gliding just out of range of an opponent’s swing - see, vs Benavidez, repeatedly - and he often does so with his hands down and eyes always on his opponent. He is always fully aware of what his opponent is doing, giving him a much better chance of causing a decisive change in momentum.
Now, Brandon Moreno on paper, has the style that could give Fig significant trouble. He is an active volume fighter, he throws a lot, and he throws a lot of variety.. He is also very fast, and apparently extremely durable - with the caveat that he hasn’t seemingly faced anyone with THIS power yet - and has a taste for taking the initiative whenever his opponent presents him with an open second.
My main issue is the question of physicality. He is not as big a puncher as Fig (who is?) and if it comes down to who’s chin is hardest, I don’t think he’s as well equipped to crack his man’s as Deus de Guerra.
Another thing is that when he throws his combos, they are very fast and committed, but he doesn’t appear to be very sound defensively when he does throw them - Figuereido’s calmness under pressure will stand him in good stead here; he will not likely resort to covering up as first line of defence.
Another; Fig is a dedicated worker of the body, an attribute that should play extremely well against a volume striker. Fig’s body kicks and step-in uppercuts (*chef’s kiss*) will be huge factors in determining the outcome of this fight, and I am predicting their systematic application will eventually break Moreno down.
In broad terms, I see this match up as busy, intelligent activity filling the space between when the big physical bomber decides to commit to contact, intelligently leveraging his power advantages until, perversely, the faster, better conditioned fighter cannot keep the pace anymore.
Figuereido, TKO 4
Ryan Wagner: I’m going to have to put on my Moreno-grinch hat for a moment. While Moreno is an exciting fighter and a solid offensive boxer, I don’t think this is a compelling matchup, and he doesn’t strike me as a fighter likely to excel against elite opposition. His game is mostly suited to being a scrambly anti-grappler, but his lack of initial-shot defense and reliance on those scrambles means that he can be vulnerable to strong, physical grapplers.
On the feet, he’s sharp offensively in exchanges, but lacks a lot of ancillary skills that allow fighters to create uneven exchanges. He has some of the best combination punching at 125lbs, but he’s there to be hit whenever he’s working. All this is to say that he doesn’t possess a skillset suited to nullifying an opponent’s offense, drawing out and punishing their attacks, and denying positional advantages through lateral movement. Moreno needs to force exchanges in order to beat skilled strikers on the feet, and I don’t see that going well for him against Figueiredo.
Figueiredo’s skilled, varied, and brutal counterpunching will make it difficult for Moreno to open up with volume combinations, and his body work should do a lot in punishing Moreno’s lead hand. Moreno’s main advantage here is pace and perhaps cardio (does Fig gas? Maybe?), but in order to leverage those advantages, he’ll need to put himself in harm’s way constantly, as he lacks the defense and footwork to nullify Fig. Moreover, Fig’s body work, which he’ll have access to as Moreno primarily attacks from close range, will likely equalize the volume and cardio somewhat.
I haven’t seen much evidence from Moreno’s game that he can take down and control Fig, and I’m not convinced he even has an offensive grappling advantage here. Figueiredo via R3 TKO
Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira
Sriram: This is an odd fight to call. I’m still not really sure how much Oliveira has fixed the issues he used to have, even though he’s gotten way better at the things that surrounded it -- good enough that the man under the skills hasn’t been tested in the same way that marked many of his previous losses. On one hand, David Teymur gave Charles an underratedly messy fight and unraveled at the hands of Oliveira’s newly terrifying pressure game; on the other, Kevin Lee showed that Oliveira was still flawed in several respects -- and despite being Oliveira’s only fringe-elite win, Lee has also proven uniquely outwillable in ways that other top-15ers aren’t. Oliveira has completely trashed several fighters with a newfound comfort on the counter and his characteristic aggressive sub-hunting, but Jared Gordon and Nik Lentz (and Nik Lentz again, and Nik Lentz again) are a far cry from Tony Ferguson.
My worries on Ferguson are just of form, because if the Gaethje fight proved anything positive about Ferguson, it was that he’s one of the most frightening forces of will that the sport has ever seen. I don’t believe that will have gone away, but after Gaethje thumped him for about 23 minutes, the physical integrity to make that matter may have. To me, Ferguson has looked to be on a quiet decline since about the Lee fight -- fighting less often, and struggling more with opponents that he should’ve eaten whole in 2018 and 2019; unlike those, Oliveira has both looked like a true elite and one who isn’t a fundamentally easy matchup for Ferguson to start with. Ferguson’s bad habits in the pocket that made me so confident in Gaethje against him likely aren’t gone, and they aren’t something 2020 Oliveira can’t take advantage of; Oliveira is probably the more dangerous fighter in-close here, as Ferguson’s uprightness and tenuous stance on the inside leave betting on him there a bit troubling.
So I guess it’s a pick between a man whose constitution is inherently suspect against a man whose constitution is so immensely proven that it is also suspect. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Oliveira wilted in the face of Ferguson’s pace late -- if he got jabbed and front-kicked from the edge of the pocket and his classical issues reared their head against a man who won’t go out and has to be taken out. In fact, I think I’d comfortably pick 2016 Ferguson to do that. But on a purely physical level, I feel like an aging Ferguson is going to be walking a tightrope from this point in his career, doubly so against an offensive force (a flawed one but a potent one) like Oliveira, and his game has proven too bizarre to reliably stay safe -- even in tests that aren’t as uniquely treacherous as 2020 Oliveira, such as Pettis and Cerrone. Leaning towards Oliveira walking out fearlessly, forcing the issue early, and Ferguson proving a bit too far gone to withstand it and get started. Oliveira via KO1.
Ben: There’s a few factors here that greatly benefit Oliveira coming into this fight.
Momentum - Ferg is coming off a beating that likely took a few years off his life. Meanwhile, Oliveira just scored his 7th straight win not long ago over Kevin Lee and has been looking better and better each time out.
3 rounds - Ferguson’s durability is a question we won’t know the answer to until the fight happens, but if it’s still there, one would assume rounds 4 and 5 would be good for him based on his relentless pressure and gas tank. Especially since Oliveira has wilted under that over time before. This can still happen, but the likelihood of Ferg getting the finish before 15 minutes are up is less than if he had 25 minutes to work with.
All that being said, Oliveira’s going to be starting fast, like he always does, and his long kicking game, vastly improved counter-punching, and lethal clinch work are going to give Ferg issues. There’s a real possibility Tony’s chin is done and he gets sparked, but I would not be surprised to see this fight hit the mat either. Oliveira’s takedowns are quite good, particularly his counter/reactive entries. Ferguson’s ground game is good but it gets severely overrated, and Oliveira should have a pretty solid advantage in submission grappling. To me, this one just comes down to where Ferguson is, and if he can overwhelm Oliveira with his physicality and pace. I’m not going to bank on that in a 3 round fight, and I think we see Oliveira score a submission, possibly after hurting Ferguson. If he doesn’t put him away in the first half of the fight, Ferguson’s chances go up I think. Charles Oliveira via submission, round 1 or early round 2.
Ed: I like Ben’s points here. I haven’t studied Ferguson very much so I’ll refrain from attempting a prediction with any depth. My only concern is that if the fight is competitive and Oliveira ends up feeling like he needs to rely on pushing grappling exchanges, we could have ourselves an Oliveira-Pettis situation where he makes a big mistake and ends up in a tight choke. Tony Ferguson is certainly capable of doing so. Oliveira has made huge strides standing in his recent winning streak, but none of those opponents were committed to or particularly competent at pressuring. Of course, that may play into Oliveira’s hands - literally, the man can crack and has shown some lovely craft off the backfoot in moments. I think part of picking Charles Oliveira is assuming Ferguson will be physically diminished or that his chin will be cracked. I made that assumption heading into the Justin Gaethje fight, and I was dead wrong. I’m extremely late to the party, but I think I’ll start believing in Tony Ferguson, 3rd round submission.
Tommy: Given that I largely agree with my colleagues on the state of both fighters coming in and how they match up on the feet, I’ll focus on what I hope ends up being the most interesting part of this fight: the grappling. Both Ferguson and Oliveira are known for aggressive sub hunting in scrambles, and when fighters like that match up together the results can be inspiring as both are willing to sacrifice position and jump on potentially unsound opportunities in the hope of instantly winning. Of the two fighters Ferguson tends to be a little more opportunistic and reactive in his submission hunting, specifically when he has his man hurt (Tony has never seen a chance to Darce someone he just hit with an elbow that he didn’t jump on). Oliveira flows masterfully between subs but tends to attack more from dominant positions, especially as his wrestling and striking have caught up with his historically superlative grappling. Combining Oliveira’s improvements with Tony’s decline as a fighter my prediction for this fight is that Oliveira gets him down late whether via strikes or a takedown, Ferguson tries to counter with a submission attempt that doesn’t work, and Chucky Olives ends up with the finish himself after an entertaining scramble. There’ll be a certain symmetry to Ferguson losing in this way to a fighter who is like him in many ways but tighter and more technical as a fighter (as tends to happen with generational progression in a still young sport). Charles Oliveira by 3rd round submission.
Philippe: Please read my article on Charles and see why I think he can beat anyone on earth and made the right turn and adjustments in his career. Tough fight though. Tony’s still very tough for Charles to beat. Obviously, the big question is if Tony recovered physically and mentally from his fight with Gaethje. What lead me to be confident in Oliveira’s in this fight is that both men will try to walk down the other and eventually they gonna clash and I think that fight will hit the ground soon and there I have no worries that Oliveira gets the job done with ease, even though I like Tony’s ground game. I think Tony is on the ground like he is on the feet, entertaining and wild but open for so many counters. Charles Oliveira by Submission R2
Danny: Charles Oliveira is a cleaner technician on the feet, a more dynamic and opportunistic finisher, and he seems to have mostly curbed his mental lapses that plagued his early UFC career. Conversely, Tony Ferguson is on the wrong end of 36, coming off a brutal beatdown at the hands of Justin Gaethje, and hasn’t exactly wowed with his performances since 2016. This should be an open-&-shut pick for Oliveira, but I’ve consistently overestimated the decline in certain fights this year and I can’t help but wonder if this is another such instance. I’ll play it safe and side with the surging Oliveira, because I don’t know how Ferguson initiates exchanges safely these days, but he also might be the perfect opponent to really challenge how far Oliveira’s improvements can go. Tepid pick, but Charles Oliveira via second round submission.
Mat: I wouldn’t say Tony’s chin has gone just yet. I’m sure it did lose a few HP in that Gaethje fight, how could it not? But he did finish that fight standing, in a fight in which he took more clean shots, harder than anytime before. If anything, his chin’s outright integrity outperformed my expectations, based off of the fact he got dropped by Pettis and Vannata.
Still, Gaethje took chunks out of him and it’s hard not to really wonder what’s left. Although he won the Pettis and Cerrone fights as ultimately convincingly as he should have, he still took more hits than he should have.
I can’t imagine the Gaethje beating will have made him a more introspective, defensively minded fighter - this is Ferguson we’re talking about - so Oliveira’s vaunted fast starts might be an issue for him here.
And Oliveira is a legitimate challenge. This top-five matchup is a belated one; he really should have had a shot at one a long time ago. He’s looked utterly dynamite in his current seven-fight win streak. He has tremendously pleasing striking skill, and as everybody knows remains one of MMA’s premiere threats on the ground.
But… but, those questions of Chucky’s heart remain. They have never been in question when it comes to Ferguson, who will, I have zero doubt, push Oliveira’s resolution like it hasn’t been pushed since the Felder fight. If anyone is fully equipped to break someone’s heart, I’d wager it’s still Ferg, and even if he is a faded force, he still matches up pretty well on the feet (the grappling, I shall leave to my more enlightened colleagues).
He is defensively better than Oliveira, pushes a greater pace (although the Brazilian is no slouch in this regard) and is insanely difficult to push back. He also chips away at the body consistently, low-kicks and has a longer range, and is very good at using it.
Part of my pick is emotional, Ferguson is one of my very favourite fighters, but I also see a clear possibility of him chopping away Oliveira’s will to live in one last surge before a potential decline, in a TKO 2.
I will end by saying, though, that a Chucky Olives win would be a tremendous boon to the lightweight division, adding another rock solid contender to the melee at the top.
Ryan: This isn’t an easy fight to pick. I can see a pressure-counter style with an active kicking game being really difficult for Tony to deal with. Tony’s unconventional attacks leave him open to counters in a big way, and his positional looseness amplifies the damage he takes from those counters, but he tends to mitigate that by being clever about feints and setups. A fighter who could deny him the time to disguise his offense, force the sloppy leads out through pressure, and punish them seems designed to be a rough matchup.
At the same time, a lot of what Oliveira does plays into Ferguson’s game. Though he’s tightened up his footwork and positioning and added some slip counters, Oliveira is still poor defensively. He still relies on a relatively static high guard. Ferguson excels at working around a guard like that, with elbows to slice through the middle, active body work, and loopy punches from odd angles that make covering up difficult. Oliveira will likely be trying to move forward as well - hopefully, as all of his defensive flaws are significantly exacerbated off the back-foot - which means that he’ll be walking onto these shots consistently.
Both men are threats from kicking range, but Ferguson is more consistent with his leg kicks. I’m not sure the fight will spend much time at kicking range, but it’ll be interesting to see how the work on the outside shakes out.
Grappling is a path to victory for Oliveira here. I think the danger of Ferguson’s bottom game is significantly overstated, and I don’t see him being too much of a threat from bottom. There is a chance he can snatch a front headlock in a scramble and threaten a choke, but if that happens it will likely be in transition rather than in extended grappling exchanges. Oliveira primarily hits his takedowns through bodylocks in the clinch, so I think he’s unlikely to take a desperation shot and leave his neck out, though the chances of that increase significantly if Ferguson can rack up attritional damage or hurt him. I’m not certain that Oliveira can control Ferguson on the ground for long stretches of the fight, but he should be able to use smartly placed takedowns to buy time on the feet.
I echo the concerns of my colleague about Ferguson’s durability, but I think he’s likely still more durable than Oliveira even if he’s lost a step. I like Ferguson more on the feet, but I think Oliveira’s grappling and potential clinch work can act as an equalizer. I don’t really have a confident pick, and I would favor Ferguson over 5 rounds. Ultimately, what pushes me over to Oliveira’s side is that it comes down to a close fight where Ferguson does more damage on the feet but gets controlled on the ground a bit (which I think is likely), Oliveira probably wins on the cards whether he deserves it or not. Oliveira via DEC
Zach Makovsky: Disclaimer: I have always had an inability to see Ferguson as a highly skilled and elite fighter, despite his insane win streak. I have, on multiple occasions, incorrectly picked against him. I can’t help it. He strikes me as an agent of pure chaos with no rhyme or reason. Outside of his d’arce series, I find his mechanics, general positioning and tactics to be poor.
What makes him special are his intangibles: his durability, his endurance and pace, and his iron will.
These have carried him to many victories as he is willing to push onwards in the face of his opponents dishing out all the damage they can muster. He continuously outlasts them, but this is heavily dependent on his durability. We’ve seen Tony dropped and hurt, legs unsteady under him as he pushes on, almost always unable to be put away. I was pretty shocked he was able to take what he did from Gaethje, but how long can one absorb this kind of repeated damage?
Oliveira, despite some ups and downs, seems to be hitting his stride. A sharper striker with a highly aggressive and smooth transitional grappling game. As Ben points out, the three rounds instead of five favors Oliveira here, as I see no way he could match the pace of Ferguson over the distance. Luckily, I don’t think he’ll have to. My blind spot to El Cucuy persists and I may end up with yet another piece of contrary evidence I will likely ignore, but Oliveira by TKO.
Haxx: This fight leaves a bad taste in my mouth. On the surface, it should be a great fight for all of the reasons the other staff have listed. Short of an early-collapse from either competitor, this should be an exceptionally compelling contest. But I have still found reasons to hate it anyway.
Here is why. Firstly, Ferguson should not be anywhere fucking near an Octagon for at least a full year after the Gaethje fight. I know the trope of "Career-altering" damage gets thrown around a fair bit, but something as if not more important is how fighters process the damage they take. Regardless of the outcome, I firmly believe this is too much too soon - a more ethical company would bench him until he has spent longer recovering. Of course, this is the UFC, so here we are.
On that theme, the cynical part of me (read: every) believes this is the perfect fight for the UFC to consign one of these two fighters to irrelevance for the rest of their career if the outcome is one they don't like; or both fighters refuse to play ball when the fight is over. Tony folds in one round? "Tony more like shoTony, doesn't matter that he's one of the most exciting fighters in the company and fought all the time, don't let the door hit you on the way out. Oli is unable to finish early, tires and is strangled late? You guys said he had a turnaround in his career this time, and he still failed! All he does is fail when stepping it up against competition, fuck this guy, and fuck you too, fight fans! Remember how I called Dustin Poirier a coward for taking fights when I wanted where I wanted?" - Dana "The Tomato" Mcgee.
Anyway, how this fight goes for me hinges on how much Tony has left. If he is around 80-90%+ I favour him in a barn-burner, but there are a lot of intangibles against him on this one. This fight should have been Hooker/Oli, which would run both of them through the wringer and show how much heart Oli has to push through the muck.
Sorry for what is less of a prediction and more of a case of saying 'fuck this noise', but this one gets to me. The UFC can jump into a fucking lake.
Renato Moicano vs. Rafael Fiziev
Ed: I’m a huge Fiziev stan so I can’t pick objectively here. However, I will point out some of the things that concern me. I like the matchup on the feet for Fiziev early, but he has gotten slower and sloppier later in fights against Alex White (oof) and Marc Diakiese (more understandable). I trust him to defend himself and not accumulate a ton of damage against Moicano in that scenario, but I have far more questions about his defensive wrestling, and Moicano’s ground game is near-elite when he’s in control. Fiziev’s ability as a combination counter puncher, and his competence in kicking range vs. Moicano lead me to believe he’s a very dangerous matchup early on. I’m picking Fiziev, as promised, but it’s a matchup that could potentially expose a few holes if they exist.
Sriram: As Ed mentioned, this feels like a tale of two fights like few else. In my opinion, Moicano's gas issues against Brian Ortega were a function of Ortega fighting a great fight to make that matter -- relentless bodywork and an absurd pace -- and he's generally going to be able to win a fight where he extends it out, especially considering his ability to take away specific tools as a fight goes (Calvin Kattar's jab, for instance) and his attrition work. The issue we've seen twice in Moicano's losses is that he desperately needs range to keep any defensive integrity -- Renato is a great ring-general and just walking at him to force pocket exchanges leads to getting check-hooked and leg-kicked, but it also hasn't been impossible to find him vulnerable inside. The fact that Chan Sung Jung (who looks like a fairly middling counterpuncher at this point) found that mark so early with his quick trigger on Moicano's jab bodes some trouble for Moicano against Fiziev.
This leaves Moicano without much of a safe range for the first bit of the fight; Fiziev is a capable and more powerful kicker, and Moicano is both offensively and defensively less equipped in the pocket when Fiziev is fresh. Fiziev's combination work against Diakiese was terrific, where Moicano's form alone is troublesome when he decides to flurry, and Fiziev showed an ability to defend in the pocket to a reasonable degree against Diakiese's combinations where Moicano's been little but vulnerable there. Fiziev might not be able to cut Moicano off and force exchanges on the lead, but pressure-kicking is a route to a fight that's potentially catastrophic for Moicano early -- I think Moicano's a more thoughtful kicker than Fiziev, I'd expect him to find more than a bit of success in that sort of fight, but Fiziev can conceivably make a power/durability edge matter more with aggressive pressure and kicking his open side until he dies.
But maybe I trust Moicano a bit too much to pick him anyway, because Fiziev putting in the work he did on Diakiese's body and the fight somehow gaining competitiveness in round 3 is troubling to me. Moicano is probably the more fragile party but also the one who's more likely to take the tools of Fiziev away as the fight goes on, especially as he exhausts himself with his early aggression and the grappling potentially opens up for Moicano. This seems like a fight that depends on where the pivot point lands, and with a broadly competitive fight, I think I'll pick the smarter and more consistent fighter at my own peril to take over the way Diakiese couldn't. Moicano by UD.
Danny: There are reasons to be concerned about Fiziev’s prospects as he ascends the lightweight rankings. The biggest red flag for me is his inability to safely draw out exchanges, even lacking a tool as basic as a jab to initiate. He relies on slamming massive body & leg kicks to open engagements, and he even seems to tire himself out pressing such an advantage. I don’t know how well he can control the pace of a fight or ramp up his own pressure over three rounds, either, since it was Diakiese who began finding answers in the wee moments of their bout. He’s quite good, but he doesn’t even seem to feint particularly well, goading exchanges with linear forward pressure and power kicking instead. It’s a dangerous game.
However, I still don’t really trust Moicano. He’s a fine first-layer responder, but he cannot maintain his defensive acumen or his composure in deeper engagements. Assuming Fiziev can continue walking Moicano down, so long as he’s striking with the Brazilian, I reckon Moicano’s physical and mental fragility will begin to rear its ugly head once more. I suspect he’ll be able to jab and fend Fiziev off for at least a round as the kickboxer acclimates to the range, but Fiziev’s tenacity, grit, and toughness lead me to believe that he’ll probably start breaking Moicano down with lengthier exchanges around the midpoint of this fight before beating him up in the final couple frames.
In essence, I anticipate a lightweight rerun of Ortega/Moicano, where the physically underwhelming technician earns his fight early, but gradually gets out-hustled down the stretch. Fiziev via Unanimous Decision.
Philippe: No surprise here, Renato is one of my favorite fighter so I’m bias no matter what I will say below (check my interview with Renato, it’s the best one I did for sure and Renato’s amazing) Love this fight, even though I wish both men would fight later in their career as top 15 lightweights. Fiziev is cool but I’m still not impressed with his MMA Career. I think he needs one big win and he’s definitely able to get it Saturday when he’ll face Renato. But If he’s pretty athletic and tough to take down I’m not liking his fight IQ and cage craft (Alex White fight). He’s obviously very good on counters and in the pocket but the man never jabs and against the longer, taller, excellent jabber that Moicanio is I see it being a huge problem for him. I would like to see Moicano mix his striking with his grappling cause I think he’d have such a huge advantage there but I also know that Moicano wants to prove a point and loves to stand and trade in the pocket way more than he should. Very interesting fight, I’ll see it going this way. Fiziev with a very good opening round, rocking Moicano who takes on late and finishes the job by submission (RNC probably) in Round 3.
Ben: I’m late to this party, because quite frankly I don’t have as deep a read on this fight so I’m going to mostly re-iterate what I said in the podcast. Moicano should have the advantage as the fight goes on, gets his timing and range, and Fiziev tires out. Fiziev is unlikely to employ a consistent pressure game (as Ed pointed out) which benefits Moicano here. Toss in Moicano being a superb grappler with serviceable wrestling, and I think we see Moicano pick apart the dangerous power striker over the course of three rounds, likely dropping the first as he eats some big shots. The caveat here is Moicano’s durability. He isn’t fragile or anything, but it was never his strength (nor is his physicality on the feet). It’s possible we see Fiziev use his power-striking game to just cow Moicano and take him out, but I think he’s just a bit too green to win this one. Renato Moicano by Unanimous Decision.
Ryan: There’s good reasons not to trust both fighters here, and that makes it difficult to have a strong lean. Moicano’s durability is suspect, and he can become skittish if forced into exchanges. Shout out to Danny for asking me why I don’t trust Fiziev and then getting my answers in before I wrote my own prediction, but I don’t trust his ability to control the pace and flow of a fight.
Fiziev has a solid pressure game (though it hasn’t been tested by strong outfighters in MMA), but he relies on repeatedly forcing exchanges through aggression. As Danny mentioned, he lacks a nuance jab to close distance and doesn’t draw out exchanges particularly well. He kicks very hard, but tends to throw naked kicks, and lands his body kicks with the foot where they have less effect (hence why he failed to slow down Diakiese despite consistently landing power kicks to the body).
For all his durability issues, Moicano is a terrific outfighter and very responsible with his feet and positioning on the outside. If Fiziev relies on his aggression to create exchanges, Moicano is capable of dancing around him and peppering him with non-committal kicks and punches. Moicano lacks a strong mid-range counter threat however, which can hurt him here. Although it isn’t optimal for Fiziev to chase Moicano rather than patiently cutting him off and setting up his leads, Moicano may have trouble dissuading it with counter-punches, which could give Fiziev opportunities to get on him.
The ace in Moicano’s sleeve is his wrestling. If Fiziev tries to cut him off with kicks to the leg and body, he’s more than capable of hitting reactive takedowns. Moicano has shown a propensity for back-taking, but even if he doesn’t get the choke, the threat of the takedowns can help dissuade Fiziev’s main cage-cutting tool. Moicano via R3 Sub
Haxx: Love Moicano, mad respect for anyone leaning into technique and poise as mechanics to navigate through disadvantages in athleticism and (seemingly) durability. Fiziev is also a fun prospect, although I do wish they were meeting a little later into their time in LW.
Fiziev seems a comfortable bet to bring the pressure. The problem is his brand of violence is less much "built on" aggression and forward momentum ... as it is a solid door bolted to a rotten frame, and that door is just waiting for a top 5 level "counterpunching wrestle-boxer tornado" to roll right on up from ringcraft alley. I don't remember a lot of, if any work built on "safe" leads like a trusty jab or jab-equivalent, which leads to Fiziev relying on high-power kicks that make sustained output tiring and lacking in nuance or rhythm.
Given Moicano's principled and intelligent work on the outside, this feels like one of those fights where one guy will spend three rounds trying to bang the door down, and the winner is determined by if the other guy is fighting to survive, or surviving engages to fight. If Moicano can lean on his wrestling, then he can exploit that to add more layers that favour him to any exchanges that happen; as well as tiring/denying Fiziev those kicks early. Still, this is sketchy all the way through.