UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa Staff Predictions
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
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After a run of events in which COVID-19 played as large a part as one could expect a pandemic to play in a sport where everyone is touching each other, the UFC has returned to their solution — Abu Dhabi, now the isolated Fight Island for a few more weeks. With a month of fairly shallow events in Las Vegas further butchered by the virus behind them, Yas Island’s reprise has come just in time — to protect a card that’s certainly worth the protection, with two title fights on the bill and a main event between two of the fastest-risers in the history of the sport.
Israel Adesanya had silenced all doubt with his knockout of Robert Whittaker, and in the process capped a seven-fight run to the undisputed title where he faced very little resistance — and while his fight against Yoel Romero afterwards seemed to introduce some questions, he still came away with the win and the belt in tow. Meanwhile, Paulo Costa’s run to the undisputed belt has happened in just 5 fights, with his last win also against Yoel Romero — a fight that both answered questions on whether he was elite, and raised them on what his ceiling truly is. Both undefeated, a 19-0 champion against a 13-0 challenger, in a fight that could define the careers of both and establish one as a contender to top pound-for-pound lists.
The co-main event is just as important to its respective division — Jon Jones vacated the light-heavyweight belt for greener pastures, and the championship now hangs in the balance between the division’s best prospect and its most tenacious veteran. Dominick Reyes ran through 205 with relative ease and had a great argument to defeating Jon Jones in February 2020, and his second crack at that belt comes against a resurgent Jan Blachowicz’s ever more prominent Polish Power.
The Fight Site staff is ready to give our thoughts on the incredibly important title fights set to happen on September 26th, as well as a look at the more interesting prospects lower down the card.
Adesanya/Costa
Lukasz Fenrych: You won’t see a more stark style clash between two committed strikers in MMA than this one. Adesanya, the slick flash feint-heavy counterstriker against the hyper-aggressive pressure brawler. Of course, that’s a masssive simplification, and it’s the space between those simplifications that could be the story of the fight.
Put simply, to start, Costa pretends to be a brawler, he forces his opponents into brawling, but he isn’t really a brawler himself. Not that he’s full of deep boxing subtlety, by any means, but his grasp of timing and space when in close is far better than the tag ‘brawler’ suggests and often means that even while an opponent goes into brawl mode to try to fend him off, he himself is getting hit far less than it seems like he should be, and picking his own punches pretty carefully. Adesanya, meanwhile, has greatly improved his ability to not get pressured, but still seems to have gaps in the way he defends and escapes once he has been. He can and does fight toe-to-toe if he needs to, but his comfortable distance even that is a fair bit further out than Costa likes to be, and since Costa as has been much-noted closes distance very well, if he tries it I think he’ll find himself pushed backwards fairly easily, even if he tags Costa on the way in.
So, of course, the important part of the fight for Adesanya is keeping it at range. Now, it’s entirely possible that he proves simply too good a mover for Costa to consistently close without taking damage. The fight with Uriah Hall, in which he struggled with Hall’s jab in the first round before eventually imposing himself and winning by KO, is often pointed to as proof that Costa can be kept at bay, and of course Adesanya is a better range fighter than Hall. There’s a couple of things that should be noted in regards to that comparison and Adesanya’s chances of keeping it at range, though, even setting aside the fact that Costa eventually worked out the jab and flattened Hall. Firstly, what’s sometimes overlooked when analysing that fight is that Hall only had success when he only jabbed and moved. Whenever he tried to set his feet to do something more he got clocked. Now, can Adesanya commit himself to just jabbing and moving? Probably. Will he? Even after the no-show against Romero, I don’t think it’s particularly likely. Second is that Adesanya’s style of relying heavily on feints to draw a reaction before he commits probably isn’t going to work on Costa. Now, since unlike Romero Costa will be coming anyway Adesanya may well not freeze as much and have the counters just ready to go- it’s really more likely than not for a striker of his class, ultimately- but even if he does, fighting a style that isn’t his first instinct might result in hesitations or miscalculations of position that don’t creep in as much when his opponent is dancing to his tune. Against a similarly un-feintable Gastellum Adesanya despite taking some damage eventually got the job done quite comfortably, but Costa is a far better striker than the American and is much, much better at judging the correct range to set himself to throw. He’s also, despite his reputation and being pretty hittable, considerably better at defence on the move.
All this makes it sound like I think Adesanya has little chance. Of course, that wouldn’t be true. No matter how uncomfortable Costa makes him, he’s going to tag Costa repeatedly as he approaches, and if Izzy is truly switched on Costa will be walking through hell. Additionally, Costa’s gas tank isn’t infinite, and if the fight goes long, Adesanya should be favourite. My pick, however, is for Costa to repeatedly get through Adesanya’s fire, roast his ribs and push him around and out of position, and eventually wear him down for a Costa TKO 3
Iggy: Now there’s a fight where you can’t really rule out any possibility save for perhaps a submission victory for either competitor. Early finish? Might happen. Late finish? Probable, if anything. An exciting back-and-forth war? I sure hope so.
Costa will try to leave Izzy with no breathing room, feints don’t tend to dissuade him, and his response to racking up damage is to try and punish you for that. The first two rounds will be the deciding factor in this fight, and the question of whether Izzy’s or Costa’s ringcraft will prevail is the key here. Izzy has proven several times over that he’s fairly well-schooled when it comes to defusing pressure fighters, and he’s shown the ability to stand his ground and retaliate.
The problem with this is that Costa is a prodigious body attacker, and Izzy’s preference for leaning back/framing out when pivoting/countering might be exploited by Costa here, and it may allow him to score enough attritional damage for a solid early lead for either a lopsided decision win, or a late finish. Or it might just hurt Izzy badly enough for Paulo to just walk through him. Pressure fighting the way Costa employs it is one of the more foolproof ways to get your man wilting, and his combination of volume, pace and power is a particularly potent one.
Conversely, I feel like Adesanya’s toughness, stamina and ability to stand his ground and fight have been underplayed in favour of painting him as a backfoot slickster with preference for precision striking. The Romero fight sure didn’t help either guy here.
Costa can be seen gassing in some of his previous fights, or at least pushing a pace he isn’t necessarily able to keep. And in this case, he has to push it and not give Izzy any time to think, otherwise Israel will just accumulate enough reads to simply dismantle him. This also makes him more vulnerable because: 1) Although it might stifle Izzy’s decision-making, it could also backfire and give him too much information early on; 2) It might just strain his gas tank to a degree where even a massive early lead might not prevent Izzy from fighting his way back into this; 3) Adesanya is by far the deeper striker with a more nuanced shot selection, which crucial for a fighter that’s going to get tangled up in an exchange.
While Costa’s power is undeniable, it’s also decidedly more attritional. He has the kind of power that hurts you over time, makes your limbs go numb, and dulls your senses — it doesn’t leave you crumpled over in a cadaver-like heap. Not immediately, that is. He does go to the body a lot which may sort of contribute to my perception being skewed, and judging someone’s power with an eye test is one of the wonkier things one tends to do in combat sports but overall he seems to possess more of a thud than a snap to his strikes. I don’t believe he possesses the mechanics or the type of power to immediately knock Izzy spark out with one punch, while Adesanya is proven to have the kind of precision and understanding of positioning to find angles of attack that tend to set his opponents up for a nasty head-on collision.
Regardless, Izzy’s ringcraft and understanding of positioning should give him enough room to begin dictating exchanges on his own terms, and end those exchanges on his own terms. And this is where Costa might begin to fade — just enough for Adesanya to take over and run away with a decision or even finish him. The onus is on Adesanya to demonstrate sharp footwork and not let Costa get to him early, and catch him with his back flat against the fence. Adesanya has to go hard, and go hard early, and only then will his typical game of feinting his opponents out of their shorts may start paying dividends. Defensively Costa is one of the more rudimentary fighters on the roster, which opens up many opportunities for Izzy to punish Paulo for his habit of overcommitting to certain attacks, and I trust Adesanya to do so as often as he can.
I expect this to end up being another one of those Middleweight Meatgrinder (© Danny Martin) type fights but I wouldn’t be surprised by it being a total blowout in either direction. There are many wrinkles to this fight, it genuinely feels like a historic event for the sport. But either way, I expect that Stylebender’s combination of skill, tenacity, and sheer toughness give him a solid chance to stand with his hands raised at the end. Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO R4.
Ed Gallo: There’s levels to this, and Izzy is flat better. Just kidding, but I do favor Adesanya in this extremely competitive matchup. The two most meaningful fights of Costa’s career were his last two, Uriah Hall and Yoel Romero. He applied his forward pressure and pocket hooking approach in both, with varying degrees of success. Costa ran into serious issues against Hall who shut down a lot of Costa’s offense with outstretched handfighting and Costa walked him down, and intercepted his momentum with a sharp jab off the backfoot. Eventually Costa was able to smother him and get to his powerful barrages off the breaks, which wore down Hall and really opened up the fight. Against Yoel Romero, in the first round at least, Costa didn’t really need to work his way through anything to back up Romero. Romero willingly conceded cage position and Woodley’d himself a bit, seeing if he could deflect Costa’s offense with his high guard. In the second round and on Romero applied the same conceptual tactics as Hall, tying up the biceps of Costa as he walked in and occupying his arms. As the fight progressed, Romero got better and better at timing Costa’s plodding entries and picked at him as Costa walked right into shots.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Costa is simply a mindless hook-slinger with no craft. Even when he’s being smothered or nullified, he’s physical and determined enough to free up his arms and get off big body shots in close. In the Romero fight, Costa began to lead to the body with sniping straights from longer distances, and cut off potential retreats with slamming round kicks once he had Romero backed up. It’s incredibly dangerous to hang out on the cage against Costa, and he’s getting better at operating in open space to get offense off besides simply marching in. We’ve seen Adesanya on the backfoot against blitzers, largely. Fighters like Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum prefer more explosive entries, which lended to more extreme defensive maneuvers from Izzy like his linear torso movement and backstepping counters. Against someone like Costa who covers space in a much more consistent, slower manner, it should open up opportunities for Izzy to be more careful with his ringcraft and employ frames to shuck him off and circle back to the center.
Costa is going to be extremely difficult to deal with, especially in the first pair of rounds, but I do believe Izzy has the tools and physical abilities to at the very least smother some of that offense and limit the number of dangerous exchanges. Once Costa has slowed and his defensive responsibility (which is already lacking) starts to break down, I could see Izzy starting to build on him to work toward a late finish or strong second half of the fight. This could end up being very close, but I feel that Costa needs a lot of success to do the work necessary to wear Izzy down within his window of opportunity. It’s a bit too much to ask of someone with limited depth. Adesanya Unanimous Decision.
Sriram Muralidaran: Most of the ground’s been covered (quite well, I’d add) above, so I’m not going to go as deep into the matchup for brevity’s sake. I agree with the general dynamic that’s been described, as well as the expected sort of momentum curve of the fight -- Costa has the early window and struggles as the fight goes on. Even with that constraint, though, I believe this to be around a 50/50 fight; Izzy’s a terrific outfighter and a brilliant setup artist, but Costa seems to be an archetypal answer to that sort of game, even if it could easily unravel at a more granular level. I expect Adesanya to struggle mightily early to create the uneven exchanges he usually prefers, both with his feints and his maneuvering -- Costa may not be unintelligent but he fights in a way that allows him to ignore a lot of inputs, and the lack of dramatic step-ins in favor of measured pressure likely complicates the sharp defensive angles that Adesanya used to unravel Whittaker as he turned them into offense. The bodywork likely does a lot of the lifting too, to cut off Adesanya’s lateral movement both around the cage and in the exchange, and while Costa is a bit of a brute inside, he’s a thudding hitter and mixes his targets up well enough that Izzy probably doesn’t want to stay in the pocket without defensive comfort in layers that he hasn’t really shown. There are concerns here that Adesanya’s previous opponents haven’t really forced him to address, even if someone like Whittaker probably could’ve done more to hit the body and kick; Costa is who he is, and I think that entails a ridiculously narrow but reliably thorny approach.
Adesanya has some routes to make those first rounds tougher for Costa -- the jab as Hall tried for some time, bodywork of his own -- but against someone who fights with the stubbornness of Costa, I struggle to see him avoiding it completely. In a fight this detailed, I think being at least a bit reductive is unavoidable, and the way I’m going to do that is this -- Costa provides enough questions for Adesanya that he hasn’t answered in MMA, and he’s reliable enough in terms of getting into positions to ask those questions, that I’m not completely comfortable trusting a win-condition that’s likely “take a beating and come back when he’s done”. Costa isn’t the kind to think with Adesanya, he’s more the sort to double down on a fight where neither has the space or pace to think deeply, and I suspect that makes for a gambit that’s catastrophic late but a winning formula early. My guess is that Costa gives Izzy resistance at every step in terms of information-gathering (handfighting with him, limited feint reactions to exploit), pressures him, hits his body, forces uncomfortable exchanges for Adesanya, and deals too much damage for the late-fight rally. Costa via TKO3.
Ben Kohn: Y’all covered this fight in depth, a lot. So I’ll keep this relatively condensed. I’m picking Costa to win via KO. Costa sets a pace he can’t keep, that is true. But neither can his opponents, and that’s the problem. It took Yoel Romero’s inhuman durability to survive Costa’s onslaught. Izzy is durable, but I’m not going to peg him as THAT durable. Costa’s ridiculous pace, measured and consistent pressure, as well his changing levels of attack are going to force Izzy to fight on Costa’s terms for at least the early portions of the fight. I don’t think Izzy will be able to enforce his game before Costa slows, and even then slowed down Costa throws at the same rate anyway. I want Izzy to win, and maybe I’m sadness hedging here, but I’m worried this will be a bit one-sided. Izzy’s paths to victory are already outlined above, but I’m saying Paulo Costa via TKO2.
Danny Martin: Despite a lackluster fight against Yoel Romero, Israel Adesanya remains on the best debut run we’ve seen in the UFC since Conor McGregor. However, this is likely going to be his ‘prove it’ moment. Should he win, it will emphatically silence any and all detractors. Should he lose, Izzy’s entire run will be called into question and recontextualized, whether he was ever even great to begin with. Similar to the McGregor phenomenon when he lost to Nate Diaz.
Or something along those lines.
The main question for me is how well does Paulo Costa’s game work in open space? On the podcast this week, I described Costa using the fence as a proximity marker for the demolition zones in front of him. Namely: opponents in open space = mostly working off the jab + a few herding kicks, opponents near the fence = stabbing jab + long straight shots to the body, opponents trapped along the fence = berserker mode.
In general, Costa’s strengths are often his weaknesses. He struggles to keep the pace he pushes. He’s willing to soldier on even opponents have keyed in on something that consistently works against him (namely, the jab). He commits with everything 110%, and despite owning a few tricks of rhythm, his technical depth is limited. It’s a testament to how well the rest of his game is constructed that Costa’s depth hasn’t been exploited terribly yet. He’s a stout kicker off both legs, particularly to the body, and he is the most devout body-puncher in the division. These are both helpful tactics in his favor against Adesanya, who tends to rely on long leaning/arcing head movement to evade shots as opponents overcommit, meaning that his body is available to attack if an opponent can lead with throwaways.
Adesanya’s job is pretty cut-&-dry for this one. He needs to avoid being pressed up along the fence at all costs (something he’s shown a keen awareness of in previous fights), jab, kick, and build off both (which seems likely enough given Costa’s lack of defensive responsibility). I would also add that Costa is an orthodox fighter, a stance which Adesanya tends to prefer, seeing as though he can obstruct the lead hand with greater ease and pivot out more consistently. Honestly, I’m frustrated we never got a chance to see Adesanya face Artur Kyshenko in the kickboxing ring, because Kyshenko would’ve been an instructive analogue for Costa. We didn’t get that fight, so I’ll once again reference Adesanya’s disciplined performance of ring generalship against Jason Wilnis to exemplify just how thoughtful Izzy can be on the outside against a concerted pressure fighter. Israel Adesanya via Unanimous Decision.
Aiden Hayes: Rare a high-level MMA fight has so few questions regarding the strategy of both, but rather has more questions on the adaptability, durability, and the cardio of both as the fight goes on. Costa is going to pressure, Adesanya is going to outfight. Which will work best?
Costa has a few excellent qualities that will give Adesanya trouble - he’s tremendous at stuffing exits with his lead side punching/rear side kicking, pressures with his feet underneath him, changes between body-head frequently, and most importantly, won’t concede his A-game and play Izzy’s A-game instead. Costa is not going to sit at range, react to Izzy’s feints, and try to counter/defend Izzy’s entries. He’s going to pressure. He’s going to do what he wants to do.
Izzy’s ringcraft relies on a fair amount of lateral movement, and while he does an excellent job of shifting direction, feinting direction changes, and using frames to angle off, Paulo’s angled steps in when pressuring and ability to cut off exits with his strikes are going to be troublesome for Izzy. Izzy is going to have to pull out all of his tricks on the backfoot to consistently prevent himself from being pinned on the cage - but that is something I legitimately trust him to do. He has shown the ability to draw out punches so he can counter then angle off, he has been able to use his own offense as a distraction to move to the center of the cage, and he is tremendous at drawing his opponents in before framing, grabbing an underhook, and clinch turning back to the center. If Izzy can prevent himself from being pinned, which I think he can, Paulo is still going to be dangerous though.
Main factor being that Paulo doesn’t spring into punching range like Gastelum and Whittaker do, instead he is always a small step away from punching range - and that is going to take away some of the easier early back-stepping counters that Izzy pulled off against Gastelum and Whittaker, at least until he gets Costa’s timing down. Adesanya cannot be as counter + lean back defense heavy in the early rounds, as Costa is always one step away from ripping the body as you lean back or try to back-step into a counter, not a massive hop in like Whittaker or Gas. Adesanya will have to be more defensively focused early on - both in footwork and actual reactions. That said, I trust Adesanya to do that and come with the right game plan here. I think Adesanya will show tremendous ringcraft, a deep clinch game, and depth in his counter-game as the fight wears on. Paulo’s entries are pretty normal, he enters the same way, with the same rhythm, and does not really adapt them as the fight goes on as say, a Petr Yan would. I do not think Izzy will get reads on counters as quick as he did vs Whittaker - largely because he has a behemoth of a man one step away from deadening him with a left hook - but Izzy will likely get the rhythm of Costa’s entries down and from there I think it’s going to be all Izzy. Costa has his A-game, but I’m not sure how much depth he has after that. To me it comes down to if you trust Adesanya’s durability to hold early. If it does, Adesanya can adapt to anyone over 5 rounds, especially vs someone who doesn’t have tremendous depth feinting in, drawing counters, etc. etc. I think it will be close throughout, but Adesanya 4th Round KO for me.
Mateusz Fenrych: This is a great fight, with some wonderfully intriguing permutations, but I have a creeping suspicion that there is a sense it will be closer than the reality turns out.
As covered above, Adesanya is capable of keeping distance, and Costa is good at cutting space off. Adesanya likes to keep a relatively slow pace, while Costa starts like a freight train that’s fallen off the tracks and flipped, windmilling destruction in all directions.
Then again, Adesanya is easily capable of maintaining a five round pace, while Costa probably gets short-breathed taking his shirt off- yes, he fights at a ludicrous pace but he cannot maintain it, and has never been in a five-rounder.
And yes, Costa is a diligent body-attacker, especially with his fearsome kicks. Adesanya’s torso is often open to attack by anyone willing to feint his lean-backs out of him - Costa varying his attack could have that effect.
But there are several simple factors within each fighter’s dynamic which just makes me favour Israel relatively confidently; as Danny mentioned, Costa commits to every and each strike with 110% effort, which is often great for scaring and cowing opponents, but it also makes his rhythm rather predictable if his opponent doesn’t fold; in the Romero-Costa fight, we saw Romero realise mid-barrage that everything is arriving with metronomic regularity, and started to parry Costa’s swings relatively easily. And Adesanya’s sense of distance is very difficult to compromise. He dealt with berserker pressure from Dereck Brunson relatively easily, managing to sidestep and pivot his way to find space for the fight-ending knee. And he dealt with longer range blitzes even more easily, by anticipation of timing, and a simple awareness of Whittaker’s lines of attack. His cage craft is difficult to fault.
And what about Costa’s kicks? They are still a concern, especially if Costa finds his lead leg early and often. But we’ve seen Israel deal with those too; Robert Whittaker’s kicks were meant to be an issue in their fight but turned out to be a non-issue.
Adesanya’s durability is still a slight question, I suppose; like Ben said it’s doubtful he has the durability of Romero to rely on to make reads necessary for Costa, and if Costa managed to touch his chin early enough he could accumulate enough damage for a TKO, the only way I see Costa winning. But I personally can’t see Costa attaining the positions he needs early and consistently enough to do the damage necessary before Adesanya taking advantage of his failing tank and TKO4ing him.
Baba: My colleagues here all did a great job of breaking down the fight to you, so I’ll keep it short. This is one of the very few MMA fights I can’t wait to watch lately. We all know the opposition of styles we have in front of us. I always tend to believe the “Matador” will be too good for the “Bull”. In this particular opposition, Paulo Costa presents a threat Izzy is familiar with. The going forward type, powerful, but not really awkward, or diverse. Of course, if “The Eraser” lands clean, Izzy is probably going to sleep. He is quite a capable pressure fighter, but I believe Adesanya will prove too good, most likely too elusive, even when backed up against the cage, and will be able to figure out the timing of Costa relatively quickly. Izzy faced fighters with similar style during his kickboxing career, and this time should not be too worried with the wrestling threat. Also, Izzy can take a punch, I feel this is something largely underestimated, probably because of that Pereira KO. Another thing is : he is NOT skinny. He is tall, lanky but quite big, although not as Costa is of course. He hits deceptively hard, and when his foes realize it, it’s too late.This should be a very good fight though, close for at least the first 2 rounds I suspect, before Costa starts to fade and Izzy finds the counters more and more. My pick is Adesanya 5th Round TKO
Philippe Pocholle-Marchetti: Amazing fight. My most awaited fight of the year. Izzy really did everything right in his transition from kickboxing to MMA. He’s amazing to watch. I really enjoy his performance against Tavares. It’s one of those I love to watch over and over. I thought Whittaker would outbox him and that night I learned a bit more about the champion. Adesanya’s counter skills are very impressive and he can take a clean shot. Even with his feet out of position, his snaps, accuracy and flexibility allows him to counter brilliantly. Israel is fantastic on the front foot more than the backfoot though. Paulo Costa called him “Skinny” but really if Israel is long and lanky he’s not that skinny. He’s actually becoming a big Middleweight. I blame Izzy and Romero both as much for that non fight last time but let’s forget about this one because Costa vs Adesanya is going to be insane (while it lasts). Paulo Costa is a beast, reckless body puncher (fantastic low blow puncher too) who can take a clean shot too. Paulo’s cage cutting is very good, I have no doubt that he’ll be able to trap Israel there several times but I don’t expect him to get as much success “bullying” Adesanya there as many people. Lot of people talked about the Wilnis fight, yeah yeah it’s a kickboxing fight, in my opinion it doesn’t tell us much about the outcome of Adesanya/Costa. I like Costa’s fighting style so much. He has a very accurate lead hand too, that lead left hook is nasty and hurt many people. Costa loves to go to that rear hand to the body and the left hook behind it. He uses pretty well all those combos in variations and he just never stops coming forward. I believe Costa’s actually gonna take his time, pressuring Adesanya and feinting a ton (shooting for the single leg too) before throwing bombs at him. I believe the best striker in the UFC is in the end gonna be shut down by the feints, the body work and gets stopped mid fight. Izzy will get some success early, rocking Costa on the outside, even surprising us with how strong he can be in the pocket and the clinch but despite winning the first rounds, he’ll go down around round 3,4. Will he survive and push forward to get the decision or late finish ? Maybe but I’m more convinced the brazilian will get the job done. This is not the only time these 2 will fight. They are, to me, the two best middleweight in the world and it’s not even close. Paulo Costa by TKO round 3.
Kyle McLachlan: I would think that Costa should be a nightmare matchup for Adesanya, not giving him any time or space. But Izzy is just too sharp and accurate, and although Costa is not the caveman Dan Hardy makes him out to be, I cannot see any possibility that the champ will not carve him up on the way in. Adesanya by decision or late stoppage
Reyes/Blachowicz
Sriram: Blachowicz is a delightful surprise for a LHW, in that he not only pretends to be good at certain things but actually is; the curse of 205 and 265 tends to be that the ones who clumsily lean into “technique” suffer more than the ones that lean into their weight’s inherent car-crashiness (Walker/Krylov/OSP), but Blachowicz has turned into a genuinely effective and moderately educated jabber with some clever combination work and growth as a sneaky clinch-break threat. The peak of it was likely his fight against Jared Cannonier, who was stymied by Blachowicz playing with the jab/left hook pairing and punishing him for his reactions to it. He’s simply a solid and improving fighter with an actual game, in a field where that doesn’t always pan out.
The issue I have with rating Blachowicz’s chances highly here, that said, is that Reyes is also one of those few light-heavyweights that put some thought and craft into how he fights, and he seems to have a skillset that takes away a lot of what Jan does. A huge distance-extending southpaw makes jabbing quite tough (even for genuine elite jabbers, see Whittaker vs. Till), and Jan’s habit of breaking stance for shifting combinations got punished by the last counter threat he faced in Thiago Santos. Reyes is a very solid counterpuncher in a way fighters like Anderson and Gustafsson are not, and he takes away Jan’s sole safe scoring tool in a way Anderson didn’t. Full disclosure, this is the same way I gauged Blachowicz against Luke Rockhold, and I ended up with egg on my face; however, against an even bigger southpaw with more options on the counter, who’s younger and less fragile, I expect the dynamic to play out more reliably this time. Reyes likely wins the outside-kicking, and punishes Jan’s attempts to close the distance with extreme prejudice. Reyes via KO2.
Ed: I’ll admit I don’t really know that much about either of their games. Blachowicz seems like one of the few fighters in the division who can actually offer decent ranged tools against Reyes, but isn’t really one to pressure hard or dictate cage positioning enough to control when or where exchanges happen. He’s extremely dangerous in the pocket (for this division) so forcing more committed entries from Reyes by being annoying and defensively competent on the outside could be an avenue for landing something meaningful. Generally I like Reyes here because of his size and ability to play a ranged game against Blachowicz without treading into those more dangerous waters very often, I could take him based on athleticism and variety alone - considering he can certainly kick with Blachowicz and has the basic competencies of a boxing game. Blachowicz is probably the better grappler but I don’t think much of him as an offensive wrestler, and trying to pressure to the fence or something to get that game going isn’t a good path with regard to how he’ll strike with Reyes. It seems like a more comfortable matchup for Reyes overall, I’ll take Reyes by Unanimous Decision.
Iggy: Jan is one of those weirdly okay-ish boxers at LHW that kinda try to punch straight. He’s also made hay by adding in punching on the breaks to his humble LHW game, which is always neat. He knows how to survive and do savvy veteran things at his weight but he’s also 37 years old and Reyes is a young, fresh southpaw that plays the ever-potent double attack game which, as we know, is one of the more athletically-demanding ways to fight, and if there’s anything Reyes won’t ever let you forget, is that he is an athlete, and he’s played football — a game that athletes play. That alone doesn’t bode well for Blachowicz but even if Jan attempts to employ the aforementioned savvy veteran things by trying to grind and stifle Reyes, Dominick has proven that he possesses the discipline necessary to find his way out of those positions correctly and not just athlete his way out of them and gas himself out as a result. Reyes by KO/TKO R2. Failing that, a Unanimous Decision for Reyes seems reasonable enough.
Danny: Dominick Reyes deserved to beat Jon Jones, and it sucks that he didn’t get the decision. However, he is increasingly looking like a decent southpaw kickboxer and that is as much as anybody could hope for from a light heavyweight. Jan Blachowicz isn’t completely inept, but he can’t throw more than one punch without breaking his stance and he will likely struggle to get his jab going against a southpaw. Not a lot to make of this one, Reyes is younger, tougher, more athletic, pushes a better pace, and still seems to be improving from fight to fight. Dominick Reyes via Unanimous Decision.
Aiden: As with the main, I enjoy both. Jan has developed a jab over his UFC career and he is pretty decent with it. He likes to play off his jab with his lead hook, building off his opponent’s reactions. Once he gets some basic reads, Jan also can start to put together some combinations. However, I do not trust his ability to constantly cut off the cage or draw Reyes into his jab, and with Reyes being a pretty adept and swift lateral movement, it’s going to be hard for Jan to consistently get exchanges going with his jab. Also echoing the sentiment that jabbing a massive southpaw is very tough. To me it looks like Jan is going to have to revert to some of his bad habits (blitzing in without his feet under him), in order to get to where he wants to be - pocket exchanges. He’s definitely better there than Reyes, but without having a consistently safe method of getting there, Reyes’ counter-game will likely show off some depth. Reyes has hit some clean back-stepping counters, has quick reactions and built-in counters (ex - his shoulder roll to uppercut v Cannonier), and hits quite hard.
Jan is a pretty solid counter-fighter but Reyes’ southpaw double attack + length is going to make it tough for him, esp. because Jan doesn't like to slip or pull into counters, rather he waits for his opponent to commit inside before throwing a check-hook or cross-counter. Reyes will be able to stay at range, kick well (Jan did not have much for Rockhold’s kicking), pair his kicks with straight to confuse Jan’s countering, and bait Jan into blitzing in before countering himself. I will take Reyes via KO3.
Mateusz: I agree with the boys on Jan; I also like him personally (I am a huge fan of savvy vets), but I find it hard to see this as a win for him.
Not only, as Sriram says, has he become a surprisingly okayish boxer, his conditioning has improved enormously. However, his decision making has not always held up; in the midst of his run to the title, he managed to almost sabotage his position in the standings by getting sparked by Thiago Santos while absolutely crashing forwards, when his most successful game has nothing to do with such tactics. Now, Santos is not a noted counterpuncher, while Reyes, even though he isn’t a textbook one, is far more adept at it than Thiago Santos is. His KO of Chris Weidman was a very neat example of this point, if not the most hard-earned one. Also, Reyes has shown durability, and pretty decent stamina, especially while winning his fight against Jon Jones, and I can’t help but think this adds up to a TKO3 for Reyes.
Baba: Reyes is comprehensively better than Jan and will beat him comprehensively. Merci. Reyes via KO Round 2
Ben: The hell am I supposed to follow up Baba’s comment with? My main question is if Reyes finishes Jan. Jan is quite durable for the most part (barring his hilarious KO loss to Santos). For the most part, if he feels like Reyes is putting him in danger, he will likely try to slow things down in the clinch. Jan is a solid grappler, especially at LHW, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him try and mix things up here if Reyes is getting the better of exchanges. Jan’s game really is reliant on his jab, which for most fighters in MMA isn’t a thing when they face a southpaw. Adding Reyes’ length and open side attack and I think we see Jan struggle to get much going on the feet. With this being a 3 rounder, Jan can’t expect Reyes to put a pace on him that he can’t keep either. On the other side, Reyes does hit hard but can extend himself too far when he punches as well. If he throws himself off balance, I can Jan using those entries to try and engage in the clinch or hit a reactive double. Jan could also have some success hitting off the break if Reyes is careless as well. Overall, I see this being a pretty clear cut win for Reyes, but expecting him to finish Jan feels sort of disrespectful to one of the only decently skilled LHW’s. Dominick Reyes via Unanimous Decision.
Philippe : As far as I’m concerned, this fight is a title defense for Dominick Reyes. We’re historically not very kind towards this division (they have it coming) but this fight is actually between two pretty good fighters. Would it make for a good fight ? Unsure. It definitely could but I’m a bit concerned with the pace and output of this fight. I can see Reyes kicking at range and looking to bait Blachowicz into his left straight. But Jan is also very good at winning those slow pace fights, where his power does wonders for him. Both are pretty solid fighters. Jan prob is better on the ground but he’ll struggle immensely to take Reyes down. Jan is much slower on the feet than the American. Both men can take good shots. I just think, the faster and more dynamic striker will edge the victory in a pretty wide decision. Dominick Reyes via Unanimous Decision
Kyle: I’ll take Reyes by decision, as I think he can jab, move, and generally out-athlete Jan and avoid getting clobbered. This is not some brave new dawn for light heavyweight, merely the start of a new low.
Fighters to Watch
You won’t find any official predictions here, these are just a few fighters on the card that we enjoy watching!
Kai Kara-France
Ed: One of the many City Kickboxing lads on the card, Kai Kara-France is very fun offensively and has big power for a flyweight. I haven’t studied him closely, but he definitely has it in him to scramble with a lanky grappler, as seen in the Paiva fight. I watched Royval a good bit when he was coming up on the regional scene, I’m not sure of his ability to get fights to the ground and Kara-France is statistically a great defensive wrestler, but not much of a reliable defensive grappler, so this could potentially be pretty competitive for as long as it lasts. I’m looking forward to the action.
Sriram: Gonna start by saying Paiva definitely beat KKF, that was one of the worst decisions I’ve ever seen. That said, Kara-France is very fun, in the same sort of general TMT mold that you see from the ones that don’t have the lank. The Nam win is looking increasingly valuable, as KKF looked like a solid outfighter, and the fight against Brandon Moreno was very fun even in a clear loss -- Kara-France made early Moreno look nearly as bad as Sergio Pettis did, if I remember correctly. Royval’s off the win over Tim Elliott, which is rapidly losing value given how Elliott probably deserved to lose to Ryan Benoit; this could be a competitive fight but KKF’s the one to watch here, I think.
Aiden: KKF does a lot of things that his CKB friends do, but has yet to really put things together to create a cohesive game like his CKB teammates. He’s got a smart feinting system and solid footwork, but he does not throw much volume and seems a bit overwhelmed dealing with his opponent’s offense. However, he’s young, a great athlete, smart, and very durable. I am looking forward to seeing his progression over the next few years.
Hakeem Dawodu
Ed: I wrote about Dawodu before his UFC debut, then he got club and subbed by Danny Henry, who is bad. Fortunately for me, Dawodu has shown his ability in subsequent fights. He’s a very measured outfighter, one of the more defined “thai style” strikers in the UFC right now (Ryan is going to hate me for that one.) He has a great kicking game, pretty sharp counters, and when he picks up the pace he’s extremely dangerous. I kind of worry about his general fight IQ at this stage and wonder if he’s going to settle on a more focused process moving forward, but I really enjoy watching him. He’s a solid clinch fighter so I’m not sure exactly if Tukhugov is going to be able to keep him in a wrestling or grappling match, but I’m hoping we get to watch him work here.
Baba : Ed is totally right about Hakeem’s thai style. In fact, in his short muay thai career, Hakeem captured 3 medals in 3 participations at the IFMA championships (Amateur World Championships), taking gold in 2010 which is a very hard feat to achieve. He also beat the likes of Josh Jauncey (Glory top 5 LW), English muaythai standout Charlie Peters, and the very dangerous Thaï Kongnapa Weerasakreck (Krush 63.5kg champ) by KO. Just came by to highlight this, and that I fully support his work, in my agenda to see KB/MT keep on the MMA takeover.
Brad Riddell
Danny: Brad Riddell was an outstanding kickboxer who gave two current champions (and personal favorites of mine) all they could handle. His performance against Mustafaev was a real eye-opener. Against one of the most relentlessly powerful and athletic lightweights in the world, Riddell knocked him down, chewed him up from range, and managed to fend off quite a few takedowns along the fence. Other lightweight prospect, Rafael Fiziev got decapitated by Mustafaev, whilst Riddell broke him down over three rounds. It really feels like Brad has the makings of something special at 155, and how aged the top of the division is turning out to be, another City Kickboxing alum could turn out to be just what lightweight needs at the moment.
Ed: We have a few Brad Riddell experts here so I won’t say anything other than: his back is incredible.
Iggy: You just stole the Riddell experts’ thunder!
Sriram: Ismagulov is the obvious title-threat prospect and I will hear no different, but Riddell is also very cool. Danny makes the point better than I can, but Mustafaev is a win that’s as impressive as certain ranked ones, just as a function of sheer ferocity and athleticism, and Riddell passed with flying colors. The annoying part (as always) is the matchmaking, but ideally beating Alex da Silva emphatically lets him face someone ranked next. After Ismagulov does, of course.
Baba : Brad is a former kickboxer. The agenda.
Shane Young
Ed: I’m fond of Shane Young but haven’t studied him enough to make any convicted claims about his game. All I’ll say is he has a pretty aggressive style, has clearly improved with City Kickboxing, and does a lot of the things we like - hitting the body off combinations, elbowing on the break, and generally favors pressure. I actually got to see some of Klein, his opponent (thanks to Polite Vulture for that), and he seems super aggressive and headkick-happy. Should be a banger.
Sriram: I’m here for anyone who can knock guys out with pull-counter elbows.