The Fight Site Boxing Preview, May 14th
Photo by Edward A. Ornelas/Getty Images
Another busy weekend is topped by the rematch between Jermell Charlo and Brian Castaño, for all the straps at 154lbs, with other highlights including Zurdo Ramirez’ continuing his quest for a title at light heavyweight and an intriguing heavyweight bout in Europe as Tony Yoka faces Martin Bakole.
Jermell Charlo vs Brian Castaño
When they first fought last summer, the TFS predictions ultimately hinged on Charlo being able to find Castaño’s chin at some point and put him away. That clearly didn’t happen, and most observers except those judging the fight officially had Castaño winning a fairly clear decision, as he was able to outwork his opponent in most rounds.
So what changes this time? Well, we can’t know for sure, since we haven’t been in the camps, but it does seem like Charlo has more obvious ways to improvement. A fair portion of his problem in the first one came from little things- like when he’d jab well to back Castaño up but then concede the ground anyway, backing himself into the ropes, or relying on an overhand right as his main intercepting punch long after it became clear that the Argentine was holding his guard well and not open to that. Little moment-to-moment tactical decisions that, made differently, could make a big difference to the fight. The issues that Castaño did display, though well-covered, are more fundamental - he does still overbalance a little when chasing an opponent with combinations, his guard can be split down the middle- so will be harder to fix.
On the other hand, though… Charlo almost never landed anything other than his jab except after Castaño had already landed on him. That’s not a small tactical error, or even a large one- it’s not that he wasn’t trying to land first, he was, he just almost never did, and while that can be mitigated with tactical adjustments it hints at a much deeper problem, which is that for such a high-level boxer Charlo’s timing simply doesn’t seem to be very good. This will be a much harder issue to dig out and work on, and may only be mitigable to some extent. His biggest help here is his jab, which on its own is a solid tool - he can’t live off it on its own because then opponents will begin to brute-force their way past it, but he’ll need to keep it busy against Castaño to alleviate the pressure he’ll be put under.
The pattern of the fight, then, shouldn’t be too dissimilar to the first, and the question isn’t likely to be whether Charlo can turn the tide and dominate but whether he can find hurtful shots in the gaps Castaño leaves as he pushes the pace. The openings are there, but the question marks about his ability to exploit them even if he sees them should make this just as compelling a fight as the first time around.
Also on the card, rising welterweight star Jaron Ennis takes on Custio Clayton in an IBF title eliminator. While Ennis- both a brilliant all-round technician and a top-level athlete- should expect to pick up the win, Clayton if he turns up at his best should be no pushover. The Canadian’s professional career hasn’t gone the way he’d want it to, and at 34 he’s deep into the bottles at the last chance saloon, but he fought to a credible draw back in 2020 against Sergey Lipinets. It should be noted, though, that Ennis pretty much demolished Lipinets in their last contest, and while you can’t triangulate common opponents directly, you’d imagine that the class difference in play there will tell here too.
That said, Ennis will have to be careful. He beat Lipinets via a combination of drawing him onto counters then upping the tempo, stepping around, taking him off balance and pressing him back, but since Clayton is a fairly dedicated counterpuncher himself he won’t find it easy to do either, and he’ll most likely have to take a different approach, a more dedicated pressure approach behind a jab. That he’s perfectly capable of that is one of the reasons he’s so highly rated, so he should just have too much for Clayton in the end.
Gilberto Ramirez vs Dominic Boesel
Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez has been at 175lbs for a while now, but having held a WBO belt at 168 for a while he’s taking his time to get round to fighting for a title in his new division, and this fight isn’t really a step up that ladder. Well, technically it is for a belt, but it’s the IBO, so it’s not.
Dominic Boesel won that in a revenge win last year over Robin Krasniqi (having been knocked out by the same man a year before), but in truth although he was European champion neither that fight nor any of his others suggest he’s really got the ability to hang at world level, where Ramirez, despite fair criticisms of a protected career so far, firmly belongs.
Part of the problem is that Boesel doesn’t do anything Zurdo doesn’t do better. When there’s a difference in levels between opponents sometimes the lesser-skilled one can find openings in particular style clashes that lets him address particular weaknesses an otherwise better fighter has, but what Boesel mostly does is in-and-out, behind a jab and a high guard, controlled pressure seeking to end with combinations. He’s not bad at it, but his opponent does the same thing, but those combinations are much better and smoother, and most of the criticisms that can be laid at Zurdo’s feet- he’s a bit straight-lined, his guard is a bit static- apply even more so to Boesel. So the German is going to find it difficult to get the upper hand at any of the things he normally relies on. There should be action here while it lasts, but Ramirez is the clear favourite.
The lead fight on the undercard features William Zepeda, a lightweight prospect who’s still on the rise but who will be looking for a better performance than the bizarre, dirty and frustrating one he put out last time versus Luis Angel Viedas - one littered with blows when Viedas was down (often from slips in an incredibly wet ring), petulance, and a knockdown against him too, off a counter as he forgot his defence entirely unloading on Viedas on the ropes. Normally a quality high-volume fighter comfortable fighting on the front foot or back, Zepeda should be much better than what he showed there and will need a much better performance against the always fun, always there-to-fight Argentine veteran Rene Alvarado.If he’s even a bit off the pace, Alvarado may take advantage. Beyond that, the card features a stack of prospect development fights.
Tony Yoka vs Martin Bakole
Tony Yoka has had a very strange pro career. After winning a (controversial) gold medal at the Rio olympics, he might have wanted to move relatively fast in what would seem like a name-filled but flawed division, but that hasn’t happened. Getting a years ban for missing drugs tests shortly after his debut hasn’t helped, but even after that, he spent a lot of time pootling about beating names faded enough to not be useful lessons in the ring but not big enough to really get him international attention- Christian Hammer and Johann Duhaupas being the standouts. He did win a European title in March last year, against Joel Tambwe Djeko, but hasn’t defended it and isn’t here, in this ten rounder against Martin Bakole. Even this has been filled with nonsense in the buildup. Yoka was initially meant to fight Carlos Takam, another long-past-it name but with at least more cachet to it, but that fell apart. Bakole stepped up as a replacement, and was accepted, but after a Covid-related postponement, Yoka changed his mind and applied to fight Filip Hrgovic in an IBF eliminator. He hadn’t accounted, though, for his contract with Bakole being locked in and not dependent on the date, so has now had to circle back and take this, five months later than originally planned.
In truth, it isn’t even the easy fight all that stepping around might make it seem it should be. Yes, Yoka’s got ambitions well beyond Bakole, but he hasn’t looked hugely impressive in chasing them and Bakole looks like he’s recovered well from his own lone loss as a pro (a beatdown from Michael Hunter that looks better now as Hunter’s proved his salt as a decent heavyweight) and will be looking to disrupt some plans. The particular thing to look out for is that Yoka does tend to both lean and loop with his shots as he comes forward, and Bakole may do some damage beating him to the punch as he overreaches. Yoka will need to control with his jab to avoid that, since Bakole’s own weakness is that he doesn’t really have much of a range game at all. Yoka should be favoured, but don’t be shocked by an upset here.
The undercard isn’t deep, but does feature the second pro fight of Sofiane Oumiha, a French lightweight who won a silver at the Rio Olympics as an amateur and lost in the round of 16 to Keyshawn Davis in Tokyo. Also featured is the pro debut of Victor Yoka, brother of Tony, but his amateur career doesn’t suggest a lot of upside there.