The Fight Site Boxing Preview, April 16th: Spence vs Ugas and much more.
Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images
Boxing’s spring bonanza continues, this time led by a very deep card topped by Spence vs Ugas and supported by a decent show from the UK. Let’s take a look at what’s coming up.
Errol Spence vs Yordenis Ugas
The big fight of the weekend is of course Errol Spence’s quest to pick up a third belt at welterweight, unifying WBC and IBF titles he holds with the WBA strap Yordenis Ugas picked up off Manny Pacquiao last summer. There may be some questions still over Spence’s sharpness since he’s spent another big chunk of time out of the ring, but he looked sharp over Garcia after an equally long gap and a huge car crash, so we’ll be assuming he’s well-prepared and in good fitness here.
The style clash is a fairly clear one - Ugas has been claiming he’ll stand and exchange, but that seems unlikely, seeing as he’s historically been mostly an outboxer with occasional moments of holding ground for a big shot or two, and suddenly becoming a front-foot pocket boxer against Spence’s big size advantage and attritional skills seems like a poor move. His problem comes in that his power isn’t likely to be enough to deter Spence, so he’ll be relying on speed to get him out of there- and he doesn’t have the advantage there either. Spence is still prone to being a little straight-lined when following, but he’s a very rapid mover in and out and it’d most likely take faster feet than Ugas has to take advantage.
For his part, Spence seemed against Garcia to have been working on boxing a little safer and being less continuously attritional. One could say he didn’t look entirely comfortable with it, since he seemed to be reaching and lurching a bit more than we’re accustomed too, but it worked and kept him safe while he figured out the timing to up the pressure on Garcia as the fight went on. We’ll likely see a similar approach, but maybe with a bit more of a hurry since Ugas is a more accomplished outfighter than Garcia and outjabbing him will be harder, so Spence will seek to impose his physical advantages as soon as possible. The most likely pattern of the fight, then, will be Spence finding a few things awkward early before taking over as the fight goes on.
The co-main event, also at welterweight, between Rhadzab Butaev and Eimantas Stanionis, is theoretically a world title fight too, but since it’s for the ‘regular’ version of the ‘super’ belt Ugas holds it isn’t really. Still, it’s a good high-level fight between two unbeaten fighters hoping to book their seat at world level and book themselves a chance to face the winner of the main event.
Butaev, a 28 year old Russian, did actually lose to his countryman Alexander Besputin back in 2019, but that was overturned after Besputin tested positive, and would any case be no shame, since Besputin is very good. He’s recovered well since then with a solid win over Jamal James late last year. Stanionis, from Lithuania, has taken the veteran-opponent route, clocking up wins over Thomas Dulorme and Luis Collazo to get here.
Style-wise, they’re both aggressive pressure pocket fighters, so it should be an action-heavy fight. Between them, I’d say that Stanionis has the more complete defence, with solid head movement on approach and a decent active high guard compared to Butaev’s more static, open-down-the-center earmuffs, but Butaev has a better bag of offensive tools, with a solid variety of punches that he chains well, and more comfort at very close range. Stannionis seems to sometimes settle into countering as an opponent finishes, which will give him opportunities to land something solid since the Russian is vulnerable on exit but will leave him taking a lot of volume first. I’d lean towards a Butaev decision as his aggressive volume starts to find holes in the his opponent’s defence, but a counter-KO in the other direction wouldn’t be shocking either.
Moving on, we have yet another welterweight contest, with Canadian Codey Crowley looking to take his 20-0 unbeaten record to more of a world stage. Standing in his way is Josesito Lopez, who’ll be looking to bring his huge experience advantage to bear. Crowley is an at times almost comically aggressive fighter not always too bothered about keeping safe when bringing his attack to bear. Lopez is… well, pretty similar. I’ll lean towards Crowley because of Lopez’s age, recent inactivity and Crowley’s busy jab, but this should be an absolute slugfest.
Next, we have a lightweight bout, with Isaac Cruz, looking to recover from his loss to Gervonta Davis against another former Davis opponent, Yuriorkis Gamboa. Now, the Cuban is long past his best in both age and ideal weight, but he nonetheless managed to be a tricky opponent in his losing efforts against Tank and Devin Haney, so Cruz can’t be certain of anything. He is a more aggressive fighter than either of those, which may allow him to test Gamboa’s stamina and impose his physicality more, but he isn’t a big 135lber himself so he won’t be imposing his size the way some others might. What we’ll probably find is a battle of timing- both fighters are aggressive, but neither (these days, for Gamboa) overly so, and both will be looking to draw a response from their opponent before stepping in to exchange. Thus we’ll likely see a fight taking place at fairly close range but with lots of feinting, deception and mind-games before the exchanges happen, with Cruz maybe being the more likely to push through and try to set a higher tempo.
Beyond that, the card also gives us a number of exciting prospects, in particular Jose Valenzuela, following up a string of exciting performances against fellow prospects with a testing fight against the veteran Francisco Vargas. On top of that, Brandun Lee faces off against Zachary Ochoa, and Vito Mielnicki Jr continues his recovery from a stumble last year.
Connor Benn vs Chris van Heerden
The British card is less top-to-bottom solid but does feature a fun couple of fights at the top. The main event of course is Connor Benn, in a (another!) welterweight clash with Chris Van Heerden. In truth, it’s a little less than we might have hoped for from Benn after his win over Algieri - Van Heerden is a solid opponent who the Brit won’t walk through thoughtlessly, but he doesn’t really advance the career or represent a step up. Still, he isn’t one to shy away from a scrap and Benn is always there to throw down, so it should be a fun one before Benn’s youth, speed and power make it count- and hell, Benn is open enough that you never know.
More even on paper is the cruiserweight rematch between Chris Billam-Smith and Tommy McCarthy, oddly fighting for less titles- the European and Commonwealth, but not the British - than when they fought for all three last July. The first one was a tight, back-and-forth sort of matchup that Billam-Smith ultimately won on the back of solid basics- McCarthy is in many ways a more imaginative and overall gifted fighter, but while he certainly had his moments he struggled throughout to anticipate the timing and distance of CBS’s jab, which disrupted his rhythm and allowed CBS to control the space and tempo. If McCarthy has worked on that problem, brought a more consistent jab and more stable stance in, he might find some joy- if not, a repeat will be on the cards.
Beyond that, the card sees Alycia Baumgardner return to the UK after her shock win over Terri Harper in November. Here she faces Edith Matthysse, sister of Lucas- but while the Argentine is a former champion, she hasn’t fought at world level in six years and not at all in two and a half, that was six pounds lighter, and she missed the 130 target by nearly 4 pounds, so what shape she’s in is questionable and realistically she’s probably not going to do much more than add a name to Baumgardner’s resume as Matchroom build up a rematch with Harper. Beyond that the card will feature Jordan Thompson, Jack Cullen making his bounceback fight after a shock loss to Kevin Lele Sadjo in December, and Campbell Hatton continuing his quest to persuade the world he might be alright, actually.