Grand Sumo 2024 Haru Basho: Five storylines to watch
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Our second Grand Sumo tournament of the year starts this Sunday. The 2024 Haru Basho brings us a stacked stable of san’yaku wrestlers, with four ozeki (all of whom seem perfectly capable of representing their ranking with the required, and expected, esteem).
If those four stay healthy, along with the all conquering Terunofuji, we could be blessed with a very competitive and intriguing tournament.
But the top level of the banzuke isn’t the only place you’ll find good potential for exciting narratives.
Read on below for five of the stories I’m excited to see play out. And let me know in the comments which of these storylines you are also tuning in for.
1. Can anyone beat Terunofuji?
This is an obvious one. Our lone yokozuna has been dominant, when healthy. Since ascending to sumo’s highest and holiest rank Terunofuji has competed in 10 of the past 15 tournaments. Of those 10 tournaments, he made it to Day 15 on seven occasions.
Of the tournaments he has completed during his yokozuna reign, he’s won five of them (70%). So it’s pretty safe to say that, when he’s able to compete, he’s the best rikishi on the planet.
At 32 he’s not an old man. But his knees have been battered by thirteen years of sumo and some significant, and recent, surgeries. He has made it well known that his goal is to win double digit makuuchi titles (he has nine) and it’s rumoured he has already made moves to become a stable-master on retirement. So it seems clear that Big Teru is not long for this sport.
However, will he get his tenth (and likely last) yusho this month? Or perhaps a better question is… who can stop him?
If Terunofuji’s knees (and back) can make it through the March tournament you figure he will be in pole position to take it all. And a big reason for that is that his field of challengers is a little lacklustre.
Now, Kirishima, Hoshoryu, Takakeisho, Kotonowaka, Daieisho, Wakamotoharu and Asanoyama are all excellent wrestlers. But none of them have been able to stand up to Terunofuji in a way that can convince me that they can pose a serious threat to the yokozuna, especially if it comes down to a play-off situation (like we had in January).
Against those wrestlers Terunofuji is 51-11 (barring fusen). Those 11 losses are split between Takakeisho (6), Daieisho (4) and Wakamotoharu (1).
Kirishima, Hoshoryu and Kotonowaka have developed considerably since they first started going at Terunofuji, but it’s still amazing that neither of them have notched a win against him yet. If either wants a shot at the Emperor’s Cup this month they will need to figure out a way to beat him.
Looking at the numbers, Takakeisho has shown the best form against Terunofuji. But he also has a big “if he’s healthy” caveat.
Given the question marks over Takakeisho (which I will get to next), the March tournament is really Terunofuji’s to lose (unless perhaps a certain flying monkey can throw a wrench into the works).
2. Takakeisho in a corner
The only man who has been competitive against Terunofuji is our longest serving ozeki, Takakeisho (he’s 4-6 against the man mountain). Takakeisho is one of the few wrestlers who can bring a level of force and intensity that is capable of backing Terunofuji up and forcing him on his heels.
Takakeisho comes into March kadoban though, so his focus might be more on saving his skin than lifting a cup. If he notches a losing record this month he will lose the rank he’s held since 2019.
The Angry Hamster is kadoban due to a 2-2-11 record in January, with him bowing out the competition on day four due to back problems. Takakeisho has been in this position before.
After hurting his knee last March, he took a 3-4-8 record. That forced him to fight for his rank in May, which he did adequately. With a healthy dose of henka Takakeisho was able to limp through with an 8-7 record. He then took off the entire following basho to recuperate.
His recuperation went exceedingly well. He returned in September and won his 4th yusho.
In November he once again failed to capitalize on a tournament win and parlay that into consideration to become the 74th yokozuna. Rash decision making took him out the running to contend in November and then injury struck again this January.
In March Takakeisho will need to dig deep again to keep his place among the elites. If he’s healthy (there’s that phrase again), I believe he’ll not only get kachi-koshi, but also have a say in who might win this thing.
3. Onosato’s sink or swim moment
After Hakuoho and Atamifuji surprised the top division and came close to lifting titles despite their young ages and lack of pro experience, it was Onosato’s turn to try the same in January.
The young man with short hair did well in his first ever makuuchi tournament (and only fifth pro tournament), scoring an impressive 11-4 record and a Fighting Spirit prize.
Onosato’s strength, size and speed shocked most of his opponents, resulting in quick oshidashi and yorikiri wins throughout the first half of the tournament. However, once he was matched up with the best rikishi in the sport the wheels started to fall off.
He was out-muscled by Kotonowaka, out-grappled by Hoshoryu and unceremoniously dumped by Terunofuji to bring his record back down to earth and quickly rule him out of title contention.
Onosato’s reward for this performance is promotion to maegashira 5. From this position he is guaranteed to face top level opposition, including likely the yokozuna. And he may not have to wait long either.
With so many elite wrestlers in his path, it will be interesting to see if Onosato will sink or swim. I personally think he might be a little too one-dimensional at this point in his career and that he will struggle against intelligent wrestlers who aren’t going to take him lightly.
4. Hokutofuji is primed to surprise
Hokutofuji is my sleeper pick for this tournament (I’m glad I got him in my fantasy league along with Daieisho, Hiradoumi and Takanosho). The owner of sumo’s most intense (and fun) warm-up ritual knows no fear. He’s a wrestler who fights with the same intensity whether he is opposite a juryo call-up or a yokozuna.
This incredible amount of hutzpah makes him a threat to win any bout and gives him an outside shot of winning any basho.
Hokutufuji came closest to realizing this potential in July of last year, when he finished runner up to Hoshoryu (in a play-off). Hokutofuji thundered through that tournament winning with straight up pushing as well as some crafty slap-downs.
Unfortunately, as is so often the case in sumo, injuries have robbed us of Hokutofuji’s best since then. A middling 8-7 was followed by a hampered 5-10 and then, in January, a disapointing 4-5-6.
When he was competing in January, though, his demeanour and his power looked pretty much recovered from the knee injury that had sapped both his physical strength and confidence.
The poor record in January means Hokutofuji has fallen to maegashira 9 for this tournament. The lower-half of the banzuke should be very afraid.
A healthy Hokutofuji is going to wreck shop in the first half of this tournament. If his body holds up, when he’s matched against the san’yaku I think we can expect to see Hokutofuji take the fight to them and perhaps ruin an ozeki (or maybe a yokozuna’s) hopes of winning the title.
5. Hakuoho and the bad vibes at Miyagino
In my January preview, I wrote about whether or not Miyagino could rebound from a dissappointing 2023 (thanks to injuries to Hakuoho and Kiho and the poor performances of Hokuseiho). However, Miyagino’s chances for success have had to take a backseat since then. Now we are wondering about their chances of survival.
Hokuseiho, the stable’s highest ranked wrestler and the first chosen protege of Hakuho himself, retired from the sport last month. The 24-year-old leaves sumo after an investigation into hazing which would have likely resulted in him being asked to leave.
Hokuseiho was accused of beating, humiliating and stealing from junior wrestlers at the stable. In addition to Hokuseiho being given the ultimate punishment, stable-master Miyagino (Hakuho) has also been punished.
He has been given a temporary ban from coaching and a two-rank demotion. In the March tournament, Miyagino wrestlers will be coached by Tamagaki of the Oshima stable.
The internet is rife with rumours that the Japan Sumo Association will look to dissolve Miyagino after this and possibly hound Hakuho from the sport.
That all remains to be seen. However, what we do know is that Miyagino will be represented in the sekitori ranks in March, after Hakuoho (another Hakuho protege) was promoted to juryo after his 6-1 record in makushita in January.
January was Hakuoho’s first tournament since being demoted from makuuchi in the summer of 2023, due to a shoulder injury that required surgery. Hakuoho, who gained promotion to makuuchi after just three pro tournaments, went 11-4 in his top division debut, earning both Fighting Spirit and Technique prizes. The former Ochiai remarkably challenged for the title in that tournament, losing out to Hoshoryu.
With his mentor benched, all eyes will be on Hakuoho to see if he can return the Miyagino stable to the top division.
Other Miyagino wrestlers hoping to weather the storm of bad PR and progress up the rankings include Tenshoho, Hokaho and Otani, who are all in makushita. Former juryo wrestler Kiho may be returning, too (he’s in the sandanme). The wildly popular Enho is also scheduled to return from a long injury lay-off. He is currently ranked in the jonidan.
…
I hope you enjoyed this preview of the March tournament. I’m geeked and can’t wait to see what happens.
My head tells me we are going to see Terunofuji blow through the competition, humble the ozeki class and then leave the sport, thus gracefully allowing one or two of them to take his place.
However, in my heart, I have a feeling that someone unexpected might be able to rise up and ruin everyone’s parades. Hokutofuji? Asanoyama? Tobizaru?
Sunday can’t come soon enough.
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