Matchroom vs Queensbury 5 vs 5: The Fight Sight Preview
LONDON, ENGLAND - APRIL 15: Zhilei Zhang faces off with Deontay Wilder as Frank Warren and Eddie Hearn look on during the 5v5 press conference ahead of their fight in the Artur Beterbiev and Dmitrill Bivol WBA, WBC, IBF & WBO Light Heavyweight fight at Outernet London on April 15, 2024 in London, England. (Photo by Richard Pelham/Getty Images)
Well, this one’s unusual. We were, of course, meant to get another premium clash this weekend, but since Artur Beterbiev couldn’t make the date, Dmitry Bivol will be fighting Malik Zinad. That’s a better fight than initial reactions (Bivol vs who?) might make you think, but still, we’ll leave that one till last, and focus first on the remaining attraction of the night: the 5 vs 5 clash of stables between British promoters Eddie Hearn (Matchroom) and Frank Warren (Queensberry). It’s a gimmick, sure, but it’s a very very good one- two longtime rival promoters, finally working together (thanks to the Saudi moneymen) to pitch their stables against each other. They should for the most part be fun fights, too, the matchups are well-chosen.
A couple of notes before we start: longtime readers of these previews may have noticed that I don’t typically love making outright picks unless I’m really sure- it’s more about picking out a few things to look out for. However, I’m gonna get in the spirit of things and make a prediction for each one.
That said, one thing I am going to ignore: the event will have a point system in place, where KOs score more than decision wins and team captains (Wilder for Matchroom, Sheeraz for Queensberry) score double. I don’t care about that and won’t mention it again.
Zhilei Zhang (Q) vs Deontay Wilder (M): Heavyweight
The headline act of the night is this clash of the big-punching heavyweights. It’s slightly odd because both are coming off comprehensive losses to Joe Parker: also odd because neither has a history with the promoter they’re representing tonight. This is essentially the spectacle matchup, chosen by the Saudi Arabian organiser of these events, Turki Alalshikh. But they are by far the biggest names, so it’s the obvious headliner.
It’s tempting to say, given their relative performances against Parker, that Zhang should wipe the floor here. He was, after all, well in the fight until he gassed, dropping Parker with sharp counters. Wilder, meanwhile, was utterly hapless, barely even looking like he wanted to be there. If they turn up with performances like that again, it does seem like there’s only one winner.
A couple of things might flip that script in Wilder’s favour, though. Those are simply the bare facts that Zhang is (1) very slow, especially with his feet, and (2) gasses easily, no matter the tempo of the fight. It seems likely that he’ll catch Wilder with a sharp counter or two early, but if he can survive them, there’s a pretty good chance Zhang will simply not be able to get to him anymore and Wilder will have time and space to pick his shots.
This is probably, then, the most fraught fight to pick, on the night. I’m going to go with Wilder by late knockout, after Zhang gasses- but it really depends on him having the wisdom to jab and move until that happens. If he tries to engage, especially against a southpaw, he might not make it that far.
Raymond Ford (M) vs Nick Ball (Q): Featherweight
This might well be the best fight on the card, as far as style and level matchups go. Ford is the champion here, having won the WBA belt in a superb, gritty comeback victory over Otabek Kholmatov in March, scoring a knockout with seven seconds left in the bout. Ball probably should be a champion too, but his WBC bout with Rey Vargas (also in March) was scored a draw and the belt stayed with Vargas. It was tight enough that it wasn’t quite a clear robbery, but Ball will feel hard done by and determined to get something here.
Of the two, Ford is definitely the more traditionally-technical fighter, a solid all-rounder able to work behind a good jab to go both backwards and forwards. He showed that against Kholmatov, where his initial attempt to box on the outside proved unsuccessful. Adjusting, he brought himself back into the fight by stepping forward and walking Kholmatov down. He did seem to flag a bit in the later rounds- which might prove a factor here- before rallying with that showstopping KO.
In this instance, it’ll probably be the backfoot fighting and intercepting punches he’ll be looking to rely on- because Nick Ball is all aggression and there’s almost no way Ford will be able to push him back. Despite his tiny stature- 5 foot 2, a full 5 inches shorter than Ford - Ball is almost certainly the strongest fighter in the division, frequently ragdolling his opponents around the ring. Not always legally, it has to be said, but in any case Ford will gain very little in trying to push him out of that gameplan by main force, so he’ll probably have to punish his approaches instead.
That’ll be easier said than done, though. Despite giving the impression of a pure, perhaps somewhat crude slugger, Ball is a crafty fighter and solid technician. It’s not that he’s not hittable- in particular, once he starts his approach he’s quite straight-lined so if anticipated he can be intercepted. We saw Vargas do that in the early rounds of their fight, a lot. And he’s always open to the body, as he focuses on keeping his guard high.
However, that anticipation is not easy, since he has good circling footwork and proactive head movement that disguises when he’s going to make his final move in. On top of that, he’s a very slick switch-hitter, which makes it even more difficult to work out the angle. And, once he is in close, he’s a nightmare- not just strong, but good at taking positions where he’s hard to hit but has open shots from unexpected angles.
Combine that with the relentless pace Ball pushes and Ford’s open struggle to make the weight (he’d planned to move up to 130lbs immediately after Kholmatov, but decided to stay for one more big fight), and a quite likely outcome is that Ford comes apart late. I’d expect him to rack up a decent lead by timing Ball’s approaches in the early rounds, but I think Ball will take over and there’s a decent chance he scores a late knockout.
Hamzah Sheeraz (Q) vs Austin Williams (M): Middleweight
Austin Williams, henceforth referred to by ‘Ammo’ is… well, he’s okay. He’s got a good jab, he’s got fast hands and feet, he’s got a pretty well-rounded game and he hits hard. I understand why Eddie Hearn, and others, think he’s worth pushing some attention towards.
I think, quite frankly, that he’s going to get mauled here.
The problem is just… basic mistakes of positioning and movement. When he’s in close and throwing, his feet are fine, but he starts winging his punches very wide, leaving himself totally open down the middle- and he’s not showing much head movement. When he’s circling at range, all he can do is circle- he’s completely square and almost just crabwalking sideways, so he’s in no position to launch an attack. Nor, if he is caught, to really defend.
To my eye he also has a timing problem switching between phases. When he goes from jabbing at range (where he’ll typically keep his hands low to snap the jab upwards) to moving in, he’ll bring his guard up- but it often seems to take him a second to settle himself in the position. Likewise, when he’s decided he’s finished throwing and wants to move out, there’s a second’s pause before he does so.
I might be wrong on all that. But if I’m not, he’s just going to be out of his depth against Sheeraz. The Englishman has an excellent jab that he builds smoothly into sharp combinations. His timing, speed and accuracy are all on point, and although not immune to getting a little square-on himself, he’s a lot more defensively responsible than Ammo. He has been caught- Francisco Emmanuel Torres knocked him down by timing his step in- but it’s something he’s clearly been working on and to punish it involves stepping in to the fire with him in a way that I’m not sure Williams is ready for.
Put simply, it’s plausible that Ammo will catch him with a big shot and hurt him, but if not, I can’t see him consistently able to avoid the attacks nor land his own in anything like the same volume. Watch out in particular for Ammo to get knocked down by a jab- it’s something Sheeraz has done on more than one occasion, and with his length advantage, he may be able to punish those mistakes Ammo makes at range. I’m going Sheeraz by KO.
Craig Richards (M) vs Willy Hutchinson (Q): Light Heavyweight
This might be the fight on the card that least fits the event- neither man is a champion, nor known as a particularly promising contender. Richards has by far the more experience, having performed creditably against both Dmitry Bivol and Joshua Buatsi - but he also lost both fights (albeit a close, tight decision with Buatsi). Hutchinson is therefore making a huge jump in levels, having lost a British/Commonwealth title challenge to Lennox Clarke in 2021 and never having really been tested since.
What he will do, almost certainly, is make it a fun fight. Richards isn’t always one for those, being a rangy jabber and point-picker for preference who can work on the inside but doesn’t favour it, but Hutchinson is an aggressive, hard-hitting combination puncher, and he’ll be looking to get into Richards’ face consistently.
The problem is, though, that his response to punches coming back at him is to just lean back a bit as he steps forward and continue to throw. It leaves him in awkward positions, off-balance and vulnerable, and I can see Richards hurting, or dropping, him repeatedly. Not with power but just by finding those moments where he’s not set to take a shot and catching him then. Since Richards is also a decent mover and Hutchinson has a tendency to leave his feet behind when chasing combinations, the potential to draw him onto shots is there too.
There’s also some heat here- we haven’t seen what was said, but Richards has accused Hutchinson of racist comments during a press event in the week. Whether that’s true remains to be seen, but there’s clearly no love lost.
In any case, basically, as it stands from when we last saw them Richards has a lot more ways to hurt Hutchinson than the other way round, and should find a stoppage at some point.
Filip Hrgovic (M) vs Daniel Dubois (Q): Heavyweight
Filip Hrgovic is a solid boxer, does most things correct, has sound technical form, but lacks a bit of depth and variety, and can be a bit open on defence. Daniel Dubois is a solid boxer, does most things correct, has sound technical form, but lacks a bit if depth and variety, and can be a bit open on defence.
It’s potentially fine margins on this one, is what I’m saying.
Hrgovic has the greater experience and better record, an Olympic bronze medalist as an amateur and holding a win over Zhilei Zhang as a pro. Thing is though, that win over Zhang was controversial at best- and his body of work as a professional past that is shallow.
Dubois has losses, yes, but they’re losses taken as he’s tested himself, and he’s still a young fighter, still improving. The Dubois who lost to Usyk is better than the Dubois who lost to Joyce, and there’s a good chance the one in the ring at the weekend will be better still. Hrgovic, meanwhile, seems to have been the boxer he is for a while, and since both his opponents since that Zhang fight have been well shy of world level, it’s hard to see where the iron is that’d sharpen the iron.
That doesn’t mean this is a clear Dubois win. Of the pair Hrgovic is the more fluid mover, so he may be able to just manage range and keep Dubois guessing on his way to victory. But he’ll have to engage at some stage, surely, and when he does we may see the thumping bodywork and smart intercepting shots of Dubois take center stage. After all, he performed creditably against Usyk, and though it wasn’t enough (yes, it was a low blow), Hrgovic is no Usyk. I’ll go Dubois on points.
Okay, that’s the 5 vs 5 matchups. Let’s get that last bit of business done, then.
Dmitry Bivol vs Malik Zinad (light heavyweight)
Yes, it’s disappointing that Bivol is facing a guy he should beat, rather than Beterbiev. The announcement was met with a lot of ‘who?’, ‘why isn’t he fighting Buatsi or Yarde?’ type calls, though, and, well… Zinad’s level is probably pretty similar to those guys and stylistically he may well be a tougher out for Bivol than either.
That doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be exciting, though, since the reason for that is is that Zinad is a rangy, jab-heavy outboxer who likes to slide back, catch his opponents as they approach, then move away. He’s a little more exciting, probably, than the last two of that type Bivol faced- Craig Richards, of this card, and Lyndon Arthur- but there’s a good chance this fight will consist of Bivol darting into range just enough to score jabs and the odd short combination before darting out again, to a comfortable decision victory. Hopefully we get some nuance to that, but be prepared for the most awkward version of Bivol rather than the combination-punching maestro he is when fighting pressure fighters. Bivol’s probably going to win on points.