Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol 2 monster card - the Fight Site preview
RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA - OCTOBER 12: Artur Beterbiev (R) punches Dmitry Bivol during their headlining bout as part of the Riyadh Season - IV Crown Showdown at Kingdom Arena on October 12, 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (Photo by Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing/Getty Images).
The Beterbiev Bivol rematch. Wow, what a card. Genuinely one of the most stacked ever, certainly of the last 30 years or so. Five of the six undercard fights here could be headliners on their own (Stevenson vs late replacement Padley being the exception, and tbh him vs Schofield probably could have headlined despite being lopsided). Honestly, the fights here speak for themselves, so let’s not gild the lilly: let’s get into it.
(a note before we start, though: I’m using the bout order visible on DAZN having ordered the card. Others are using other orders, so we’ll see what ends up being the case and apologies if I’m wrong)
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Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol II
Undisputed light heavyweight world championship
The first fight was a close, technical but action-heavy, back-and-forth affair. Close enough that scoring was contentious- some of those who had it for Bivol could not see any way to score it for Beterbiev and were thus convinced we’d seen a robbery, whereas Beterbiev’s fans pointed to the clear visible effect of his shots and to periods of inactivity by Bivol that might have given rounds away.
(I had it a draw, so I could stay out of that one… though I did say I saw more rounds that could potentially have gone Beterbiev’s way than to Bivol, so I found the result fair)
As always in rematches, the question is of what either fighter can or needs to change. In this particular case, both fighters are so obviously the finished article that there isn’t going to be a lot - there isn’t a silver bullet either one can employ to suddenly definitively take over. So it’ll be little details.
One question to ask regards the end of the first fight. After a lot of back and forth, Beterbiev finished strongly and pretty clearly won the last two. What’s important is whether that was simply the physical toll on Bivol, or whether Beterbiev felt he’d worked out the timing and tricks of his opponent and could push harder.
The former option isn’t great for the smaller man, but if that was it it probably won’t make a huge deal of difference- there isn’t really all that much harder that Beterbiev can push to make that happen earlier, and if anything at his age (40) he could lose that capability quite significantly between fights.
The latter could be a bigger issue- at least if Beterbiev’s belief were genuine. Beterbiev was never cautious in the first fight, but Bivol was able to back him off for some of it, prevent that rolling onslaught that breaks his opponents down. If Beterbiev decides earlier that he’s got less to worry about, and turns out to be right about that, we could see the knockout that evaded him the first time.
On the other hand, if Beterbiev believes that to be true but it isn’t, and Bivol has more in the locker, new tricks and new versions of his timing, that could get Beterbiev in trouble, so… careful careful.
Bivol could also focus on movement, particularly lateral movement. Now, that has never been his greatest strength, and he didn’t do loads of it in the first fight- he’s always focused more on in-and-out movement and quick raids down the middle. Now, that’s obviously relative, he can and did circle Beterbiev- but his instinct tends to be to disengage straight out first and then step around. That meant Beterbiev did find him a bit easier to find, and it also led to some risky moments, where he had to exchange toe-to-toe to back Beterbiev up and get some space. While it worked for him that time, mostly, it’s not something you want to have to do against a puncher that hard.
Now, he clearly isn’t going to turn into Vasiliy Lomachenko overnight, nor is moving laterally in closer range a risk-free thing to do- but in terms of disengagement, it’s probably something he’ll find helpful. And even offensively, if he can add even the odd moment of stepping around as he attacks, he’d find new angles of attack and, potentially importantly, ask a lot of Beterbiev’s energy levels. Basically, the more he can get Beterbiev to need to turn to follow him, the more chance he has of stopping that late roll. If it can be back-and-forth, all the better.
The other thing he should look at - and this is pretty much a necessity- is maintaining his jab. Early on in the first fight they were pretty equal in volume of that punch, but later on Bivol’s numbers dropped sharply, and he ceded that battle. That cost him tactically too, since not having to wade past a jab as much definitely made it easier for Beterbiev to pressure him.
That’s a risky thing. He slowed down that weapon in the first fight because Beterbiev was using it as a trigger for his own work, throwing his own and closing distance behind it to land scoring power shots. Essentially, he felt vulnerable trying to set up his own work because it let Beterbiev do so too. The opportunity on the table, though, is a trap or two. If he can work out exactly what Beterbiev was reacting to, and find a counter for that response, he can hurt his opponent and, tactically, take some of that confidence in his own aggression away.
In Beterbiev’s case, most of the improvements probably focus on figuring out which punches and combinations are most effective in breaking down Bivol’s guard. He did do it plenty enough in the first fight, but he also landed on the arms and gloves a lot. Finding the route through the defense to clean scoring shots sooner is the key. One focus might be the common usual shout- the body. He did throw downstairs in the first fight, but a bit more might bring that guard down and leave him openings up top too.
Another thing he might try - and this is odd to say about a monster puncher, but I’ll say it anyway- is really sit down on a punch, just occasionally. Not that he doesn’t already, of course, but he’s such a monster puncher that you rarely see him genuinely fully torque into something. He just doesn’t have to, really. Now, he can’t adopt that as a constant tool - it’d cost too much energy and give up too much speed and mobility. But just having the threat in his mind could potentially limit some of Bivol’s movement options.
Anyway, it’s a terrific fight, of course, and a really hard one to pick. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Beterbiev by late TKO, able to turn some of that late pressure from the first fight on earlier and grind Bivol down, but I’m nowhere near confident.
Joseph Parker vs Martin Bakole
Heavyweight
Well, this is a turn up for the books. Obviously, Parker was initially meant to be facing Daniel Dubois, but he got sick on Thursday and had to pull out. As we saw with Stevenson, finding a really good late replacement is tough to do - but, apparently Martin Bakole, the thunderous puncher who derailed Jared Anderson’s rise last August, is fit to fight and hopped on the plane. If he’s genuinely in shape, this is as good a late replacement as you could imagine, and honestly potentially no worse a fight than the original.
This breakdown assumes that he is in shape. If not, Parker will run circles around him and Bakole has a puncher’s chance, not much to talk about there. But if he is:
One thing to look out for is if Bakole can awaken an old buried habit of Parker’s. Until (and including) the 2022 loss to Joe Joyce, Parker often displayed a tendency to flinch into a defensive posture whenever he saw shots coming at him (or, sometimes, feints). This isn’t to say he was fighting scared, or gunshy in the usual sense of the word- he was ready and willing to get into tough situations, and he was ready to let his hands go- but then he’d react to a shot and stop what he was doing. This hurt him both defensively- because although ‘defending’, the reaction was not always the right one- and offensively, because he’d just abort any attack he was preparing. It also made it hard for him to throw counters, for obvious reasons.
Now, he hasn’t really done that since that Joyce fight- himself and coach Andy Lee look to have done a great job in getting rid of that habit. And it’s not as if he’s faced no challenges- Zhilei Zhang is a huge puncher and on a good run of form, and despite being dropped twice he came through that convincingly. He also defanged Wilder, although Wilder has looked so poor since it’s hard to gauge the import of that win really. But he’s clearly worked on the issue, and been tested about it. So it may not be a factor.
But it’s still worth looking out for, because if there’s one fighter who might re-awaken that kind of old instinct, it’s Bakole.
Anyway, if we assume that doesn’t happen, let’s talk about that Zhang fight- which actually offers a good case both for and against Parker here. This is because there are ways in which Bakole is similar to the Chinese veteran: a huge man even by heavyweight standards, slow of foot but faster of hand. Both tend to prefer to let their opponent move around them, waiting for them to approach to throw intercepting shots and counters, rather than expending too much energy in an active pressing or backfoot game.
That’s where Parker had his success- for 90% of the fight, he was able to do that moving around successfully, turning Zhang, jabbing constantly, and getting in and out mostly safely, without getting into the head-on exchanges where Zhang does his best work. A similar gameplan is almost definitely the best way to approach Bakole, so having the experience of doing it already is a solid start. That Zhang is on a technical level a better defensive fighter than Bakole also suggests Parker can land more here without a lot more risk or effort.
The potential problems were also visible though. For all his concentration and focus, he did get dropped twice. The first was a moment’s inattention at range where Zhang was able to step forward and catch him, the second a quick interception shot that caused Parker to go to the ropes where Zhang was able to throw a few more solid shots and force him to take the knee. And the thing is, for all their similarities, both those play into the areas where Bakole is different to Zhang. For starters, where Zhang’s hands are faster than his feet, they’re still not really fast unless he’s fighting Joe Joyce. Bakole’s punches genuinely are rapid, and he throws them in longer combinations and with more creative setups than Zhang does.
That’s where Bakole’s chance lies- those moments of inattention cost Parker two knockdowns against Zhang, but against Bakole similar moments could end up punished a lot harder, and Bakole’s probably better placed to make use of more of them, given that Zhang typically relies on that one sharp straight left to do the real damage whereas from Bakole it can come from anywhere.
Bakole also usually tires less than Zhang, although the short notice may change that.
So, a likely pattern of the fight: Parker controlling much of it by moving and staying off the center line while still landing his jab and the odd flurry in enough volume to score solidly, but Bakole capitalising on moments of danger. You wouldn’t expect Bakole to win except by knockout, because if he can catch his man enough to put solid rounds on the board he’s probably catching him enough to get him out of there. For Parker, even chasing a knockout would probably be unwise, so except a points win if he gets it, unless Bakole completely gasses out.
It is also worth noting that while nowhere near what Josh Padley is doing (more on that later), it is a jump in levels for Bakole, so while he seems like he belongs at world level, you never really know until you know. On the flipside, Parker hit the scales at a career high 267lbs, 19.5 pounds higher than against Zhang and almost 12 more than his previous high, 255 in the loss to Joyce. That might affect his mobility.
Carlos Adames vs Hamzah Sheeraz
WBC Middleweight world championship
Sheeraz, although the challenger, is the one with the push here. One of Queensberry Promotion’s main men these days, he’s looking to make that final step from rising to arrived, and there’s every belief he can do it. Adames won’t take that lying down, though- despite having the interim belt for three years now and being upgraded to full last year, and despite fighting some respectable opposition, he’s never really caught fan attention. He’ll see this as a chance to do so.
Stylewise, the champion is an odd combination of tricky and crude. His defence can be leaky and his punches often winged, but he looks to time them well in between his opponents’ work in exchanges, and although he doesn’t always make the right defensive choices, he’s generally trying to be off-line and get into awkward positions. He likes to get his opponents into toe-to-toe exchanges and he’s pretty good at that, but he won’t engage too recklessly. Against Terrell Gausha, much of the fight was him exerting measured pressure and throwing mostly from mid range (it was, if we’re honest, not very exciting, but it was a solid enough performance).
Sheeraz conforms a lot more to the boxing textbook, all clean crisp technical form, sharp combinations, and a frankly incredible jab. He’s also very tall for the division, at six foot three He’s a fighter who, in his early days, used to be all about his handspeed, but has apparently since realised that he’s so fast and so long he can sit down on his shots more and still have an advantage. He’s also clearly worked on changing his rhythm and angles up, something the lack of got him in trouble for in a controversial win over Bradley Skeete back in 2021.
He does have his weak spots, though, most notably that while his attack has gotten more varied and less straight-lined, his defence hasn’t- he still relies on a pretty basic high guard and basically just his length, without a great deal of head movement or too much focus on being off center line. This does mean he can get clipped while throwing, and also by the odd shot around the guard when he gets lazy bringing it back up. This showed up a couple of times in his fight against Ammo Williams- although he dominated that, there was the odd moment where a needless shot took him off his stride. And Adames is a better fighter in a reasonably similar mold to Williams.
Still, though, ultimately it’s just going to be difficult for Adames to live with his speed and accuracy. That jab in particular could be the story of the fight, as it so often has been in recent moments. He takes a slight risk with it, since he often steps in with it, putting his weight behind it- but the risks have so far been far outweighed by the rewards, and multiple opponents have been dropped by it. Adames may well be another, since we’ve seen him in multiple fights avoiding opponent jabs by drawing back from them- not an unusual defence at all, if the timing’s right it’s fine, but Adames has gotten himself clipped for it by much slower, less powerful punchers than Sheeraz with that shot. It’s basically a shot designed to punish Adames’ weakness in that area.
Even if he gets past that, though, he probably just doesn’t have the handspeed to live with Sheeraz in exchanges. Sure, he may get the odd winged punch around that guard, or threaten his body (which will be something to look out for, since Sheeraz hasn’t really faced that test from someone doing so consistently), but Sheeraz’s shots are much crisper and shorter despite him being so long, and you’d expect him to be first to the punch in most exchanges.
Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Israil Madrimov
Interim WBC welterweight world championship
This one is essentially a battle between two fighters looking to establish themselves as the next king of the 154lb division once Terence Crawford moves on. And though neither fighter is close to aging out, they also don’t want to waste any time, so there’s plenty at stake here.
Madrimov is the the long-time amateur trying to move fast as a pro and having already put in a solid, though losing, performance against Crawford. Ortiz Jr was a blue-chip prospect at welterweight before crashing hard into health issues, dealing with a bad bout of covid and then repeated fight cancellations due to problems making weight and potentially life-threatening sickness caused by that.
That last part will hopefully not be part of the narrative but it is worth noting- Ortiz looked physically fine against Sergei Bohachuk, and lasted to the end in a gruelling physical war. He’ll need that kind of conditioning here, most likely, because on a technical level there seems to be a fairly clear advantage to Madrimov.
Put simply, Vergil Ortiz’s footwork, distance management, and punch setups vary between ‘fine’ and ‘really ropey’, depending on how over-invested he is in the moment. He’s gotten better at keeping it together as his career’s gone on, but we saw against Bohachuk, even as he won, that he can struggle with maintaining his balance, or with working his way safely into range. Both knockdowns in that fight were pretty pure balance shots- he wasn’t really hurt, but he simply wasn’t well set to stay standing up. The second one, in particular, saw him overcommit to a punch of his own so much that a glancing blow by Bohachuk took him off his feet as he swung.
Madrimov’s style, particularly the more cautious, feint-heavy approach he showed against Crawford, should draw that kind of mistake out of him repeatedly. Now, Madrimov is not a big 154lber and will probably not be able to punish those quite as commandingly in terms of either power or the length advantage Bohachuk had, but the opportunities will be plenty. And, for the most part, he’s also a much less hittable fighter than the Ukranian, so he should be able to get rounds on the board early on.
Where Ortiz’s chances will lie are, if he isn’t physically compromised… well, he is a physical guy, a big, fast and accurate puncher. Madrimov’s defense (and attack) are based on constant twitchy movements, often quite explosive, energy-intensive ones, and if he has to do that for 12 rounds against a fighter constantly pushing the pace he might run low on energy himself. Additionally, though for the most part he’s a far more technically safe fighter than Ortiz, he has in the past displayed a repeated tendency to get a bit leapy and over his front foot on the final approach to a close exchange. Even against Crawford, that weakness was hidden mostly by him never really trying to do that, rather than fixing the issue. He’s the kind of fighter who doesn’t necessarily have to lose a lot of energy to get a lot more vulnerable, and if he’s not compromised, Ortiz might be able to take advantage of that late on.
So, put simply: Madrimov is the favourite (well, for me- the bookies seem to think otherwise, minorly), but look for a tense final few rounds as Ortiz tries to claw his way back if he does fall behind early on.
Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley
WBC Lightweight world title
Look, there isn’t a lot to say about this fight. If Padley wins it’ll be one of the greatest upsets in boxing history. He’s not a bad fighter by any means- a tricky-looking all-rounder who derailed Turk’s rising favourite Mark Chamberlain last time out, with a decent (if unexciting) spoiler performance. It’s just… this is a huge jump in levels. It’s arguable whether he’s even fought at British level before now, given Chamberlain’s own unprovenness- and now he’s fighting one of the most skilled fighters in the world.
Stevenson’s original opponent, Floyd Schofield, was also jumping levels (it was the least interesting fight on the card anyway), but at least he had a measure of explosiveness and unusual attack where you could say he might hurt Shakur. It’s hard to see how Padley does tht. He’ll be there, he’ll be game, but it’s just hard to see how he wins. It’s hard to say if he’s even got the ability to convincingly survive- there’s just nothing to plausibly measure him against that gives us any clue as to how he responds to Stevenson.
Also: given how Padley got the job done against Chamberlain, and Stevenson’s own reputation, it might not be the most exciting fight in the world.
Zhilei Zhang vs Agit Kabayel
Interim WBC heavyweight world title
This is a meeting of opposites, in many ways and a fight that could easily end up (if it doesn’t end early) in a story of two halves. Put simply: Zhang, the huge punching, slow-moving old veteran, and Kabayel, the rising (if not quite young, at 32) contender with incessant volume.
Zhang’s chances, of course, come early. Kabayel’s not exactly a subtle defensive fighter, and as he pushes forward he’s going to be open to exactly the kind of counter Zhang throws. An early knockout is quite possible, and Kabayel taking damage and knockdowns is almost a guarantee.
But Zhang pretty much almost has to get it done early, because we know he slows late in fights even when he’s getting to choose the tempo- and he absolutely will not be choosing the tempo here. If Kabayel can hang in there through the early rounds, there’s a pretty good chance he overwhelms Zhang in the middle or later rounds.
Another hard one to pick the winner, another fun one.
Joshua Buatsi vs Callum Smith
Interim WBO light heavyweight world title
Both fighters come into this one really needing a win. Obviously, in a literal sense that’s usually true in boxing, but this is one of those ones where a loss will really set the loser back. For Smith, it would probably spell the end of his title ambitions- at 34, it’s hard to see him coming around again in a division as stacked as light-heavyweight. For Buatsi, there’s more time, but his career has been in an odd stall for the last few years and he really has to grab this chance to get some momentum, as well as keep the interim title and his chance for an eventual shot at the winner of the main event.
Style-wise, it’s one of those where the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter match up pretty directly against one another and it’s therefore a fight that could go any which way, including a dominant victory for either.
For Buatsi, his strengths are his accurate punch-picking and timing of combinations while on the offensive. If he can get that flowing, he could trigger Smith’s tendency to shell up behind his high guard without much else when flustered, and find his way through and around that to score some heavy damage.
Smith’s strengths are his size and the way he uses it, both in throwing good intercepting punches as opponents close range on him, and, a lovely counter left hook that often catches opponents when they’re disengaging or if they’re inattentive at range. Which is precisely one of Buatsi’s biggest weaknesses- a tendency to get sloppy defensively both while closing range and stepping back. A particular cause for concern would be his last fight, against Willy Hutchinson- he won pretty clearly, but on several occasions he’d simply stop focusing in the middle of rounds, almost as if his clockwork had run down, and let Hutchinson get good shots off. Why that happened we don’t know, but he can’t do that here.
So yeah, a good fight which could go either way and should have plenty of action.
The card also features two local Saudi Arabian prospects- super lightweight Ziyad Almaayouf and lightweight Mohammed Alakel. Both are in against journeymen opponents in showcase fights. I think they’re going to be on a prelim portion of the card rather than the main PPV, airing on youtube, but there hasn’t been much in the way of announcement, they’re just on Boxrec. TNT sports does have a prelim/preview youtube stream set up to start streaming tomorrow, so if you’re interested you might find them there..